The One That Got Away

Last night's game at Indianapolis was frustrating to watch. Knowing that the Bills had already lost earlier in the day, the Patriots had a chance to take over sole possession of first place in the AFC East while further pushing the Colts out of the playoff picture. Following the loss, the Patriots are now in a three way tie for first place and the Colts are right back in the wild card race. Surprisingly, the Patriots outplayed the Colts in nearly every facet of the game but still came up short because of some costly mistakes. At least I think they were mistakes. Maybe they were just Bill Belichick's way of firing up his team for next week.

Anyway, here are just a few thoughts on the game while I wonder if we're seeing the real Bilichick (that wouldn't be a good thing) or if he's just messing with us:

• Who's Who?
Team A: Time of possession was 34:24, 342 net yards, 140 yards rushing, 67 offensive plays, 22 first downs.

Team B: Time of possession was 25:36, 301 net yards, 47 yards rushing, 50 offensive plays, 18 first downs.

Despite a clear advantage is every category, Team A still came out on the losing end last night.

• Jabar Gaffney should not have been allowed to fly back with the team last night. Gaffney's drop will be remembered for a long time. Cassel hit him in stride and there was no defender within ten yards. That was an easy touchdown taken off the board and a huge difference in this game.

• Belichick clearly didn't bring his A game last night and I can only hope he did this on purpose. The challenge of too many men on the field was a perfect example of being stupid. The Patriots had just picked up a first down so they hurry to the line of scrimmage in an attempt to draw a penalty and run a play for no gain. So instead of setting your offense and running a developed play, you try to run some kind of play designed to draw a penalty? Why not just design a play to pick up yardage? And the challenge was weak, anyway.

• More on Belichick: Clock management wasn't his strong suite last night, either. He burned his three timeouts with more than 11 minutes left in the game. I also didn't like him running down the sidelines to use the last timeout of fourth and 1. His timeout call negated the first down that the Patriots picked up and then he chose to kick a field goal afterwards. Just a weird sequence.

• In general, I thought that the play calling was way too conservative. I know that Randy Moss was double and triple teamed all night but at some point you've got to air it out and let Moss go get it. And if Moss was drawing that type of defense, someone else had to be wide open more often. And I don't consider Ben Watson a viable option.

• I could have written 100 different scenarios in which the Patriots could have lost last night's game and I would never have thought for one second that Adam Vinatieri kicking a 52 yard field goal for the winning points would be one of them.

• I like Cassel not getting sacked yesterday. I didn't like Peyton Manning not getting sacked yesterday.

• Not sure what Dave Thomas was thinking on the late hit but even Rodney Harrison would have thought it was late, which tells you something. That was a killer penalty since it made it third and 16 and pushed them out of field goal range. Here's the thing, though. On the next play, Cassel threw a shovel pass to Faulk for no gain. That seemed like poor play calling right there.

• Even if Laurence Maroney can come back healthly next year, I'm convinced that I don't ever want to see him in a Patriots uniform. You could put a blindfold on Kevin Faulk and BenJarvis Green-Ellis and they would still hit the hole better than Maroney.

Despite the loss, I'm encouraged by the play of Matt Cassel and the offense, as well as the way the defense came up big on numerous occasions to stop the Colts' offense. In this game, a few calls either way is the difference between winning and losing and last night, the Patriots had those two or three calls all go against them. Up next for the Patriots are the suddenly struggling Bills in a showdown for first place.

Week Nine NFL Picks

This week's slate of NFL games features some great matchups. Even the Jets vs. Bills game should be intriguing. Can Brett Favre win back the New York Fans? Will his wife openly cry on national television and blog about it after? Riveting, truly riveting. We'll also continue to witness the demise of the Lions, Bengals and Chiefs. We may soon be tossing the Colts into that list, too. Their season is on the line verse the Patriots this week. If they come out too desperate look for the Patriots to exploit their weaknesses on defense and throw the ball downfield early and often.

I also believe that there won't be any unbeaten teams in the league come Monday morning. Yes, the Titans will fall to the Packers. I'm amazed that Kerry Collins has this team at 7-0 but that's what happens when you have a stifling defensive unit and an offensive line that has only allowed one sack all year. Eventually, Collins' mediocre play will catch up with the Titans and I think it happens this week.

Sunday, November 2
NY Jets at BUFFALO
I don't see a tired and sloppy Brett Favre going into Buffalo and beating the Bills. I just wish that this game were in the Meadowlands so that we could hear the fans booing Favre more often. And for once, I'd like to hear Favre defend himself instead of his wife. I can't recall any player ever damaging his reputation more than Favre has this year.

Detroit at CHICAGO
I am not picking the Lions to win another game this year.

JACKSONVILLE at Cincinnati
I am not picking Cincinnati to win another game this year.

BALTIMORE at Cleveland
The Ravens seem to own the Browns lately and I don't see that changing very much this Sunday.

GREEN BAY at Tennessee
Here's what you need to know about the Titans: as good as everyone says they are, their quarterback is a joke. For the year, Kerry Collins has only thrown three touchdowns, in seven games. That may be good enough to get you through the regular season but I don't see them going deep into the playoffs with that type of passing game.

Arizona at ST. LOUIS
Kurt Warner's return to St. Louis is going to be spoiled by him putting up a Farve-like three interception performance.

HOUSTON at Minnesota
I don't think either of these teams are any good and I'm abandoning my rule of picking the home team when in doubt. Just a hunch that the Vikings are in for a collapse.

TAMPA BAY at Kansas City
I am not picking Kansas City to win another game this year.

Miami at DENVER
Looks like defenses have begun to figure out the Wildcat. This could be a high scoring game, as neither team tends to play very much defense.

ATLANTA at Oakland
One thing I don't like about Atlanta: they've allowed one more point than they've scored this year. If they want to be a serious contender, their defense will have to play better.

DALLAS at NY Giants
I'm continuing my streak of not picking the Giants here. Although, I think I would have picked the Cowgirls anyway.

PHILADELPHIA at Seattle
That win in San Fran last week was a fluke. I'd be surprised if the Seahawks won another game this year.

NEW ENGLAND at Indianapolis
No Jeopardy this week but I will give you a few stats to ponder.

Quarterback A: Has thrown for 1,362 yards with a 66 percent completion rate, seven touchdowns and six interceptions for a quarterback rating of 85.

Quarterback B: Has thrown from 1,754 yards with a 61 percent completion rate, ten touchdowns and nine interceptions for a quarterback rating of 79.

Those, my friends, are the 2008 statistics of Matt Cassel and Peyton Manning respectively. I'm not really sure what the deal is with Manning this year. I know that there's been speculation about his knee but in the limited amount I've watched him play this year, he looks completely out of sync and even more immobile than ever.

There are two other reasons I'm picking the Patriots here. The first is that the defensive line of the Patriots looks as strong as I've ever seen it. Last week they had Rams quarterback Marc Bulger on the run for nearly the whole game. And if it's one thing we do really good here in Massachusetts, it's chase people named Bulger. But, unlike the Feds, the Patriots were able to get to the Rams quarterback on many occasions. If the Patriots are to win on Sunday, they have to play that same style of defense and get to Manning. They can't let him sit back in the pocket and choose his receiver because I have no faith that our backfield can cover the Colts wide receivers. In fact, I think Randy Moss might actually play both sides of the ball this week.

The second key ingredient for a Patriots win is the play of Cassel, who is starting to look more and more like Tom Brady every week. His confidence is way up and you're starting to see a bit more swagger on the part of the offense. Two weeks ago, Cassel won the AFC Player of the Week for his game against Denver. Last week against the Rams, Cassel was even better than the previous week. His numbers weren't the same but he showed that he can bring the Patriots back from a deficit on three separate occasions and win the game. Were it not for three or four dropped passes by Moss, Wes Welker and the sure-handed Kevin Faulk, last week's game wouldn't have even been close.

Third, it looks like LaMont Jordan will be ready to go at running back and we can only hope that he can carry the load and play his usual physical style. Establishing the run will allow Cassel to find his open receiver. With the Colts' defensive unit already banged up so this would be a good time to put them to the test and air it out deep.

Patriots 41 Colts 31 and Vince Wilfork will write a check to the NFL after every cheap shot he gets on Manning (I have the number at three and I think that might be low).

Monday, November 3
Pittsburgh at WASHINGTON
That was a tough loss for the Steelers last week against the Giants. I think they start to break down in this game with Big Ben starting to show some of the abuse he's taken so far this year.

Red Sox Are Still The World Champions

Well, it seems as though Mother Nature is a big fan of the Boston Red Sox. She just doesn't want to see the Philadelphia Phillies or the Tampa Bay Rays win the World Series, knocking the Red Sox out of their rightful spot as the best team in baseball.

And kudos to the Red Sox for knowing that this World Series was going to be an absolute mess. Between the horrible officiating (which MLB has apologized for, twice), delayed start times, record low television numbers and the abysmal playing conditions, the Sox must have seen this one coming and let the Rays beat them in game 7. It's the only rational explanation of why the Sox lost that game. And is Barack Obama really that powerful that he can push back the start of a baseball game just so his half hour commercial can air tonight? Apparently he is.

Anyway, to all the Rays and Phillies fans out there, have fun watching the three inning game tonight or whenever Mother Nature decides to let play resume.

Ken Rosenthal Is Not A Journalist

I really didn't want to write about the following topic. For those of you who know me, you know that I like to have fun, joke around and I definitely don't take myself too seriously. But this is one of those times when I've got to Cowboy Up and write about something that's really been bothering me: Ken Rosenthal.

A few weeks ago, Rosenthal reported the following on FoxSports:

The Red Sox look very white. The trade of left fielder Manny Ramirez and loss of shortstop Julio Lugo to injury left the Sox with a predominantly Caucasian roster. Why bring this up now, with the Red Sox in the American League Championship Series? Well, the free-agent market will open in about a month. The makeup of the Red Sox's roster could be a concern for players they pursue, whether it's this offseason or in the future.

Of the Red Sox's current players in the ALCS, the only African-American is outfielder Coco Crisp. The only Latin Americans are designated hitter David Ortiz, who is from the Dominican Republic, and utility infielder Alex Cora and reliever Javier Lopez, both of whom are from Puerto Rico. Center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury is Native American. Pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima are from Japan. Reliever Manny Delcarmen is of Dominican descent, and injured third baseman Mike Lowell was born to Cuban parents in Puerto Rico... a perception has long existed among some African-American athletes that Boston is hostile to players who are not white... The question is whether the Red Sox will lose players they want because of the makeup of their club, the perception of the city or both.

So let me get this straight, Ken: The Red Sox are a mostly white team, except for all the non-white players in the clubhouse, which some people might mistake for a meeting of the United Nations? That's one of the most idiotic things I've ever read.

And what is with Rosenthal's notion that "Boston is hostile to players who are not white?" Is he writing this story based on data from 1960? Did Rosenthal even bother to do any research for this column at all? And why would any editor let this drivel pass off as a column?

Does he know that David Ortiz is among the most beloved sports figures in all of Boston sports history? Yeah, he's right up there with Larry Bird, Bobby Orr and Bill Russell. Last year, the Red Sox ownership honored Ortiz with a made up clutch player award so they could give him a brand new car.

Let's take it a step further than Ortiz. This team features Daisuke Matsuzaka, whom the club paid a record breaking $53 million to his Japanese team just for the right to negotiate with him, knowing that there was no guarantee that he would sign. And after they signed Matsuzaka, the Sox went out of their way to sign Hideki Okajima, in part to help ease the transition for Matsuzaka. But the Red Sox only like white players, according to Rosenthal.

Digging a little further, we'll all remember that fans demanded the Sox bring back Mike Lowell after last season. Even though he's on the downside of his career, the Sox did end up signing him to a lucrative deal, even though he isn't white. You can also look at the popularity of guys like Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp. Their popularity seems to grow every day, despite what they've accomplished on the field, which isn't a whole lot. But, according to Rosenthal, Boston only embraces white players. Except for all those other non white players.

I also want to address Rosenthal's comments regarding Manny Ramirez and Julio Lugo. I'll address Lugo first because he's easy to do. The Sox signed him to a four year, $36 million deal two years ago. He has stunk for both years and was in jeopardy of losing his job before he got hurt earlier this year. It has nothing to do with the color of his skin and everything to do with the fact that he probably couldn't even be the backup infielder on this team. . . if he were even healthy.

Now on to Ramirez, a tougher act to tackle but I'll give it a shot. Despite the millions of reasons that Manny gave the fans of Boston to hate him (and I mean hate in the worst sense of the word), the fans embraced him for nearly eight years. We put up with his quirkiness, we put up with his running mistakes, we put up with him throwing traveling secretaries to the ground, we put up with him not talking to anyone in the media, we put up with him not going to visit injured war veterans, we put up with him fighting players in the dugout, we put up with his showboating and the list goes on and on. Here's the thing, though: race has nothing to do with why Manny was traded. Manny shot his way out of town. He quit on his teammates, management and the fans. This was a guy who said he had a sore knee and couldn't play for two weeks, had an MRI done that showed nothing was wrong and was promptly traded to the Dodgers where there were never any issues with his knee. It was strictly about one thing and one thing only for Manny: money.

To further show how much of an idiot Rosenthal is, I went back to one of his earlier columns, where he pretty much writes the exact opposite when discussing New York Mets General Manager Omar Minaya earlier this year:

The Red Sox are a better example of a melting pot, but they are not just a cultural melting pot. The Sox are a blend of players young and old, gifted and ordinary, wealthy and hungry. The pieces — from Manny Ramirez to Dustin Pedroia, Daisuke Matsuzaka to Jonathan Papelbon — could not be more disparate. But somehow, under the leadership of manager Terry Francona, they all pull toward a common goal.

But, just like Manny, we're not going to get any answers from Rosenthal. We won't have an explanation of what he meant or a carefully crafted PR statement proclaiming that he was intoxicated when he wrote those columns. All we have to go on are the articles. And the articles clearly show that Ken Rosenthal is a horrible journalist.

Week Eight NFL Picks

Here we are at week eight of the 2008 NFL season and things remain as whacky as ever. Early pre season picks of the Colts and Chargers continue to look mortal, while we wait and see what will happen with the tailspin in Dallas. Another loss could send them tumbling over the edge but a win might restart their season. Losses for those three teams this weekend might be the beginning of some rebuilding ahead. On the flip side, the Bills, Redskins, Steelers and Giants (as much as I hate to say it), continue to look like strong contenders.

As always, winning team is in CAPS.

Sunday, October 26
TAMPA BAY at Dallas
The free fall in Dallas continues with another loss to Tampa Bay. I have a feeling that there will be a sacrificial lamb in Dallas following this game, whether it be someone on the coaching staff or the water boy no one knows.

WASHINGTON at Detroit
The Redskins look good so far this year, which is the exact opposite of how the Lions have look.

BUFFALO at Miami
Big win by the Bills last week against the Chargers. Look for that to continue as they head to Miami.

St. Louis at NEW ENGLAND
The Rams have surprisingly won two games in a row but they give up way too many points to keep that streak alive. After a short week of practice for the Patriots, the loss of Rodney Harrison and three of their running backs, the Patriots will realize that Matt Cassel can throw the deep ball better than Tom Brady. Patriots 38 - Rams 13. This green Kool Aid is delicous!

San Diego at NEW ORLEANS (in London)
Not really sure how this is considered a home game for the Saints. This is an early must win game for both teams and I see New Orleans coming out on top. San Diego might be done.

KANSAS CITY at NY Jets
I'm not sure how anyone can believe a word out of Brett Favre's mouth ever again. I wonder if they can take his SI Sportsman of the Year Award away from him that he won last year? The only thing he's managed to do since unretiring (if he was ever retired in the first place) is tarnish his own image and he has no one to blame but himself.

ATLANTA at Philadelphia
Matt Ryan is quickly erasing the memory of Michael Vick and that's a very, very good thing.

Oakland at BALTIMORE
It pains me to pick the Ravens but I don't see Oakland going to Baltimore and beating this team, even though I think that Baltimore isn't nearly as ferocious as it used to be.

Arizona at CAROLINA
I still think that the Cardinals give up way too many points to be considered an elite NFL team, regardless of what the standings say.

Cleveland at JACKSONVILLE
I think we'll see the real Browns this weekend and that's not a good thing for Cleveland.

Cincinnati at HOUSTON
This is probably one of the last good opportunities that the Bengals have of winning a game this year.

NY Giants at PITTSBURGH
In what many are considering a potential Super Bowl matchup (I don't see either of these teams going that far, by the way), the Steelers come out on top and not just because I'm not picking the Giants in any game this year. I think the Steelers are a better team.

Seattle at SAN FRANCISCO
If things keep getting worse in San Francisco, Mike Singeltary may line up on defense.

Monday, October 27
Indianapolis at TENNESSEE
This should be fun watching the end of the Colts as we know them. They've looked old, slow and complacent the entire year. Playing the Titans isn't going to change that.

Some Links That You May or May Not Enjoy (Tom Brady Edition)

Painful details on Tom Brady's knee


A nightmare scenario


Profile: Tom Brady's surgeon


Brady's recovery hits snag


Brady has more procedures for infection, Pats unsure of return


Report: Pats' Brady has two more procedures done on knee


Pats deny report they're upset with Brady choice


Patriots fire back at ESPN over unsourced Brady story


No matter how you slice it, Brady's knee is bad news


Dr. James Andrews says Tom Brady is getting better

Is Matt Cassel the 2001 Tom Brady?

I've been pretty critical of Matt Cassel in his incredibly uninspiring six games as a staring NFL quarterback this year. Cassel has shown that he has weaknesses in his game, such as holding onto the ball waaaaaaaayyyyyy too long but he's also shown us that he can be an incredibly serviceable quarterback in the NFL, which he demonstrated on Monday night by winning the Offensive Player of the Week Award. All of this got me thinking to when Tom Brady took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe and never looked back. Here are some basic numbers to analyze and we'll do it Jeopardy style again:

Answer 1: 4 wins, 2 losses

Question 1: What are the won-loss records of Tom Brady and Matt Cassel through their first six games as starting NFL quarterbacks?

Answer 2: Matt Cassel

Question 2: Which quarterback had a higher completion percentage in the first six games as a starting NFL quarterback, Tom Brady or Matt Cassel. It's 120 out of 190 for Brady for a .632 completion rate while Cassel comes in at 110 out of 166 for a .663 completion rate.

Answer 3: Ten

Question 3: How many more yards passing did Brady have than Cassel after their first six games as starting quarterbacks? Had you asked me that question without already knowing the answer, I would have bet that Brady had at least 1,458 more yards passing than Cassel.

Answer 4: Thomas Brady

Question 4: Who had more touchdowns through their first six games as a staring quarterback, Brady or Cassel? This is the only real difference I can find in these two right now. Brady threw 10 TDs in his first six games, while Cassel has only thrown six, three of which came on Monday night.

Answer 5: Tie, four each.

Question 5: Which quarterback threw more interceptions in their first six games as a starting quarterback, Brady or Cassel?

Kind of strange (in a good way, I think) how close these numbers are. But my real question is how are we judging Cassel? And the only way to find that out is to compare him to other backup quarterbacks. Here are actual numbers from actual NFL games last week:
Matt Cassel, NE: 18 of 24, 185 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INT
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cin: 21 of 35, 164 yds, 1 TD
Seneca Wallace, Sea: 12 of 23, 73 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Damon Huard, KC: 9 of 16, 96 yds
Brad Johnson, Dal: 17 of 34, 234 yds, 3 INTs
Gus Ferrotte, Min: 25 of 40, 298, 2 TDs, 4 INTs

So now let's move on to Final Jeopardy. The answer: Matt Cassel. The question: Which of the six starting quarterbacks listed above was the only one to win a game last week?

I think the point I'm getting to (if I have a point) is that Cassel is among the best backups in the league. In fact, no one has a great backup quarterback and if they did, they'd probably be make nine million a year somewhere else to start.

Now let's do a simple comparison of Cassel to some of the other starting quarterbacks in the league using the most basic of litmus tests: quarterback rating. Want to know what Jake Delhomme, David Garrard, Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning have in common? They all have lower quarterback ratings than Cassel.

Not bad for a backup quarterback that's going to lead New England to our fourth Super Bowl in seven year. And yes, I'm back on the Kool Aid diet.