Friday, October 24, 2008

Is Matt Cassel the 2001 Tom Brady?

I've been pretty critical of Matt Cassel in his incredibly uninspiring six games as a staring NFL quarterback this year. Cassel has shown that he has weaknesses in his game, such as holding onto the ball waaaaaaaayyyyyy too long but he's also shown us that he can be an incredibly serviceable quarterback in the NFL, which he demonstrated on Monday night by winning the Offensive Player of the Week Award. All of this got me thinking to when Tom Brady took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe and never looked back. Here are some basic numbers to analyze and we'll do it Jeopardy style again:

Answer 1: 4 wins, 2 losses

Question 1: What are the won-loss records of Tom Brady and Matt Cassel through their first six games as starting NFL quarterbacks?

Answer 2: Matt Cassel

Question 2: Which quarterback had a higher completion percentage in the first six games as a starting NFL quarterback, Tom Brady or Matt Cassel. It's 120 out of 190 for Brady for a .632 completion rate while Cassel comes in at 110 out of 166 for a .663 completion rate.

Answer 3: Ten

Question 3: How many more yards passing did Brady have than Cassel after their first six games as starting quarterbacks? Had you asked me that question without already knowing the answer, I would have bet that Brady had at least 1,458 more yards passing than Cassel.

Answer 4: Thomas Brady

Question 4: Who had more touchdowns through their first six games as a staring quarterback, Brady or Cassel? This is the only real difference I can find in these two right now. Brady threw 10 TDs in his first six games, while Cassel has only thrown six, three of which came on Monday night.

Answer 5: Tie, four each.

Question 5: Which quarterback threw more interceptions in their first six games as a starting quarterback, Brady or Cassel?

Kind of strange (in a good way, I think) how close these numbers are. But my real question is how are we judging Cassel? And the only way to find that out is to compare him to other backup quarterbacks. Here are actual numbers from actual NFL games last week:
Matt Cassel, NE: 18 of 24, 185 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INT
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cin: 21 of 35, 164 yds, 1 TD
Seneca Wallace, Sea: 12 of 23, 73 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Damon Huard, KC: 9 of 16, 96 yds
Brad Johnson, Dal: 17 of 34, 234 yds, 3 INTs
Gus Ferrotte, Min: 25 of 40, 298, 2 TDs, 4 INTs

So now let's move on to Final Jeopardy. The answer: Matt Cassel. The question: Which of the six starting quarterbacks listed above was the only one to win a game last week?

I think the point I'm getting to (if I have a point) is that Cassel is among the best backups in the league. In fact, no one has a great backup quarterback and if they did, they'd probably be make nine million a year somewhere else to start.

Now let's do a simple comparison of Cassel to some of the other starting quarterbacks in the league using the most basic of litmus tests: quarterback rating. Want to know what Jake Delhomme, David Garrard, Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning have in common? They all have lower quarterback ratings than Cassel.

Not bad for a backup quarterback that's going to lead New England to our fourth Super Bowl in seven year. And yes, I'm back on the Kool Aid diet.

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