The One That Got Away

Last night's game at Indianapolis was frustrating to watch. Knowing that the Bills had already lost earlier in the day, the Patriots had a chance to take over sole possession of first place in the AFC East while further pushing the Colts out of the playoff picture. Following the loss, the Patriots are now in a three way tie for first place and the Colts are right back in the wild card race. Surprisingly, the Patriots outplayed the Colts in nearly every facet of the game but still came up short because of some costly mistakes. At least I think they were mistakes. Maybe they were just Bill Belichick's way of firing up his team for next week.

Anyway, here are just a few thoughts on the game while I wonder if we're seeing the real Bilichick (that wouldn't be a good thing) or if he's just messing with us:

• Who's Who?
Team A: Time of possession was 34:24, 342 net yards, 140 yards rushing, 67 offensive plays, 22 first downs.

Team B: Time of possession was 25:36, 301 net yards, 47 yards rushing, 50 offensive plays, 18 first downs.

Despite a clear advantage is every category, Team A still came out on the losing end last night.

• Jabar Gaffney should not have been allowed to fly back with the team last night. Gaffney's drop will be remembered for a long time. Cassel hit him in stride and there was no defender within ten yards. That was an easy touchdown taken off the board and a huge difference in this game.

• Belichick clearly didn't bring his A game last night and I can only hope he did this on purpose. The challenge of too many men on the field was a perfect example of being stupid. The Patriots had just picked up a first down so they hurry to the line of scrimmage in an attempt to draw a penalty and run a play for no gain. So instead of setting your offense and running a developed play, you try to run some kind of play designed to draw a penalty? Why not just design a play to pick up yardage? And the challenge was weak, anyway.

• More on Belichick: Clock management wasn't his strong suite last night, either. He burned his three timeouts with more than 11 minutes left in the game. I also didn't like him running down the sidelines to use the last timeout of fourth and 1. His timeout call negated the first down that the Patriots picked up and then he chose to kick a field goal afterwards. Just a weird sequence.

• In general, I thought that the play calling was way too conservative. I know that Randy Moss was double and triple teamed all night but at some point you've got to air it out and let Moss go get it. And if Moss was drawing that type of defense, someone else had to be wide open more often. And I don't consider Ben Watson a viable option.

• I could have written 100 different scenarios in which the Patriots could have lost last night's game and I would never have thought for one second that Adam Vinatieri kicking a 52 yard field goal for the winning points would be one of them.

• I like Cassel not getting sacked yesterday. I didn't like Peyton Manning not getting sacked yesterday.

• Not sure what Dave Thomas was thinking on the late hit but even Rodney Harrison would have thought it was late, which tells you something. That was a killer penalty since it made it third and 16 and pushed them out of field goal range. Here's the thing, though. On the next play, Cassel threw a shovel pass to Faulk for no gain. That seemed like poor play calling right there.

• Even if Laurence Maroney can come back healthly next year, I'm convinced that I don't ever want to see him in a Patriots uniform. You could put a blindfold on Kevin Faulk and BenJarvis Green-Ellis and they would still hit the hole better than Maroney.

Despite the loss, I'm encouraged by the play of Matt Cassel and the offense, as well as the way the defense came up big on numerous occasions to stop the Colts' offense. In this game, a few calls either way is the difference between winning and losing and last night, the Patriots had those two or three calls all go against them. Up next for the Patriots are the suddenly struggling Bills in a showdown for first place.

Week Nine NFL Picks

This week's slate of NFL games features some great matchups. Even the Jets vs. Bills game should be intriguing. Can Brett Favre win back the New York Fans? Will his wife openly cry on national television and blog about it after? Riveting, truly riveting. We'll also continue to witness the demise of the Lions, Bengals and Chiefs. We may soon be tossing the Colts into that list, too. Their season is on the line verse the Patriots this week. If they come out too desperate look for the Patriots to exploit their weaknesses on defense and throw the ball downfield early and often.

I also believe that there won't be any unbeaten teams in the league come Monday morning. Yes, the Titans will fall to the Packers. I'm amazed that Kerry Collins has this team at 7-0 but that's what happens when you have a stifling defensive unit and an offensive line that has only allowed one sack all year. Eventually, Collins' mediocre play will catch up with the Titans and I think it happens this week.

Sunday, November 2
NY Jets at BUFFALO
I don't see a tired and sloppy Brett Favre going into Buffalo and beating the Bills. I just wish that this game were in the Meadowlands so that we could hear the fans booing Favre more often. And for once, I'd like to hear Favre defend himself instead of his wife. I can't recall any player ever damaging his reputation more than Favre has this year.

Detroit at CHICAGO
I am not picking the Lions to win another game this year.

JACKSONVILLE at Cincinnati
I am not picking Cincinnati to win another game this year.

BALTIMORE at Cleveland
The Ravens seem to own the Browns lately and I don't see that changing very much this Sunday.

GREEN BAY at Tennessee
Here's what you need to know about the Titans: as good as everyone says they are, their quarterback is a joke. For the year, Kerry Collins has only thrown three touchdowns, in seven games. That may be good enough to get you through the regular season but I don't see them going deep into the playoffs with that type of passing game.

Arizona at ST. LOUIS
Kurt Warner's return to St. Louis is going to be spoiled by him putting up a Farve-like three interception performance.

HOUSTON at Minnesota
I don't think either of these teams are any good and I'm abandoning my rule of picking the home team when in doubt. Just a hunch that the Vikings are in for a collapse.

TAMPA BAY at Kansas City
I am not picking Kansas City to win another game this year.

Miami at DENVER
Looks like defenses have begun to figure out the Wildcat. This could be a high scoring game, as neither team tends to play very much defense.

ATLANTA at Oakland
One thing I don't like about Atlanta: they've allowed one more point than they've scored this year. If they want to be a serious contender, their defense will have to play better.

DALLAS at NY Giants
I'm continuing my streak of not picking the Giants here. Although, I think I would have picked the Cowgirls anyway.

PHILADELPHIA at Seattle
That win in San Fran last week was a fluke. I'd be surprised if the Seahawks won another game this year.

NEW ENGLAND at Indianapolis
No Jeopardy this week but I will give you a few stats to ponder.

Quarterback A: Has thrown for 1,362 yards with a 66 percent completion rate, seven touchdowns and six interceptions for a quarterback rating of 85.

Quarterback B: Has thrown from 1,754 yards with a 61 percent completion rate, ten touchdowns and nine interceptions for a quarterback rating of 79.

Those, my friends, are the 2008 statistics of Matt Cassel and Peyton Manning respectively. I'm not really sure what the deal is with Manning this year. I know that there's been speculation about his knee but in the limited amount I've watched him play this year, he looks completely out of sync and even more immobile than ever.

There are two other reasons I'm picking the Patriots here. The first is that the defensive line of the Patriots looks as strong as I've ever seen it. Last week they had Rams quarterback Marc Bulger on the run for nearly the whole game. And if it's one thing we do really good here in Massachusetts, it's chase people named Bulger. But, unlike the Feds, the Patriots were able to get to the Rams quarterback on many occasions. If the Patriots are to win on Sunday, they have to play that same style of defense and get to Manning. They can't let him sit back in the pocket and choose his receiver because I have no faith that our backfield can cover the Colts wide receivers. In fact, I think Randy Moss might actually play both sides of the ball this week.

The second key ingredient for a Patriots win is the play of Cassel, who is starting to look more and more like Tom Brady every week. His confidence is way up and you're starting to see a bit more swagger on the part of the offense. Two weeks ago, Cassel won the AFC Player of the Week for his game against Denver. Last week against the Rams, Cassel was even better than the previous week. His numbers weren't the same but he showed that he can bring the Patriots back from a deficit on three separate occasions and win the game. Were it not for three or four dropped passes by Moss, Wes Welker and the sure-handed Kevin Faulk, last week's game wouldn't have even been close.

Third, it looks like LaMont Jordan will be ready to go at running back and we can only hope that he can carry the load and play his usual physical style. Establishing the run will allow Cassel to find his open receiver. With the Colts' defensive unit already banged up so this would be a good time to put them to the test and air it out deep.

Patriots 41 Colts 31 and Vince Wilfork will write a check to the NFL after every cheap shot he gets on Manning (I have the number at three and I think that might be low).

Monday, November 3
Pittsburgh at WASHINGTON
That was a tough loss for the Steelers last week against the Giants. I think they start to break down in this game with Big Ben starting to show some of the abuse he's taken so far this year.