I'll be completely honest, I'm not really buying into the whole Boston - New York rivalry for Super Bowl XLII. Maybe it's because the Giants technically play in New Jersey but I don't hate them like I loathe the dreaded Yankees and I really think that the media has been trying to play this into something that it's not. When I think of NFL teams that I absolutely hate, the Colts take first, second and third place on my list and Petyon Manning comes in fourth, fifth and sixth. Although, I do like the comparison of Jerry, George and Kramer against Woody, Cliff and Norm.
I'll be back tomorrow with Part III of my Super Bowl XLII breakdown and it's not looking good for the Giants in the battle of the offenses.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Some Links That You May or May Not Enjoy- Super Bowl Edition

Globe tome throws book at Patriots. A little early to be ordering your book on the 19-0 New England Patriots, don't you think?
To understand Belichick, look what he did with Browns. It's amazing to think that Belichick wasn't considered a very good coach with the Browns. It's also amazing to see that he has changed little, if at all, over the years.
Giants one of worst teams to reach Super Bowl. This story just confirms what I already knew.
A Patriot answers two callings. A great story on tight end Benjamin Watson, who gets little to no media attention among the stars on the Patriots.
Once a roll player. The only reason I can think why the Dolphins would let Wes Welker go is to secure the number one pick in this year's NFL draft. Or they could just be completely mismanaged.
'72 Dolphins don't want to face the truth. I heard that Don Shula will be at the game to witness history. I have a feeling Shula wouldn't believe a team could go undefeated unless he witnesses it first hand.
Belicheck common thread in team's success. The man, the myth, the legend has his team on the cusp of greatness.
Mentor forced to watch Brady from afar. Some insightful stuff from Tom Martinez and Tom Brady Sr.
NFL: No Fun League. For that much money, I'd do more than just the chicken dance.
Pats fans a cut above. Scientific data confirms what we already knew- Boston fans are better.
Buying into the system. There's a reason the Patriots are poised to be Super Bowl contenders for the foreseeable future and it starts at the top.
Patriots always follow their leaders. Please note the author of this story.
Fight of his life. A truly inspiring story on former Patriot Joe Andruzzi's battle with cancer. I've met Joe and his wife and they are among the kindest, most caring and genuine people you will find.
This guy is definitely crunkid:
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
A Little Super Bowl Humor

God asks Peyton Manning first: "What do you believe?"
Peyton thinks long and hard, looks God in the eye, and says, "I believe in hard work, and in staying true to family and friends. I believe in giving. I was lucky, but I always tried to do right by my fans."
God can't help but see the essential goodness of Peyton, and offers him a seat to his left.
Then God turns to Eli Manning and says, "What do you believe?"
Eli says, "I believe passion, discipline, courage and honor are the fundamentals of life. I, too, have been lucky, but win or lose (and I've lost a LOT), I've always tried to be a true sportsman, both on and off the playing fields."
God is greatly moved by Eli's sincere eloquence, and he offers him a seat to his right.
Finally, God turns to Tom Brady: "And you, Tom, what do you believe?"
Tom replies, "I believe you're in my seat."
Monday, January 28, 2008
Super Bowl XLII Preview, Part II

So now that we've agreed on who has the better quarterback, let's move on to a subject that I can't quite get my hands around lately and that is each team's defense. I say that I can't get my hands around this subject because by the way people are talking, I would have guessed that the Patriots defense totally stunk. It just doesn't make any sense to me so I started running the numbers and even I was surpised by what I found.
There are four major defensive categories that are used to judge each team's defense: yards given up, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed. Here's how the two teams rank head to head:


To get a little better sense of where I'm going with this, I went back and looked at just the last five games of the year for each team so that I could put this into a little bit better perspective. I added up the number of points each team has given up and came up with 110 points given up by the Giants and 84 points given up by the Patriots, which means that the Giants are allowing 22 points a game (on par with their season average) the last five games while the Patriots have averaged 16.8 points given up per game over that same time frame which is actually slightly better than their overall season average.
I'm not sure how valid my next argument is in the grand scheme of things but I was trying really hard to find some type of silver lining in the stats that would help me better understand why people think that the Giants have the far superior defense. Here's what I did- I added the ranking of each of the four defensive categories together for a big picture view. The Giants total was 43, while the Patriots total was 20, which would benefit the Giants if the object were to have a high score. However, the objective is to have the lowest score so once again I'm left believing that the Patriots have the superior defense. It's also worth noting that there's quite a big difference between 20 and 43. Although, again, I'm not quite sure how valid that overall argument is.

To be honest with you, I really feel like I'm going easy on the Giants here, too. I mean, their opponents average 207 yards passing against them while the Patriots average 295 yards passing a game. I don't see that adding up to a good thing for the Giants, especially when you factor in the play of each team's quarterback and the amount of playoff experience they have.
In the next few days I'll have a comparison of the offense for the Patriots and Giants, including putting the running games head to head, as well as the wide receivers. I've started doing some of the research on this one already and it's not looking good for the Giants (this is turning into a running theme, I think). Stay tuned.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Super Bowl XLII Preview, Part I

With little relevant to talk about, I thought I'd start breaking down the Super Bowl preview with some cold, hard facts. I'm not really sure what's going on in the world today but somehow people are starting to jump on the New York Giants' bandwagon. That's fine with me if you want to cheer for the future loser of Super Bowl XLII but consider yourself warned.
To start off my series of Super Bowl previews, I thought I'd do a quick quarterback comparison. And I already know what you're thinking- Tom Brady is a far superior quarterback than Eli Manning and you're right. Is another Manning really in the Super Bowl? This really is Bizarro world. Anyway, while I will eventually get to the head-to-head Brady/Manning comparison, here are some numbers for you to divulge while wondering if it's really a good idea to get a huge Giants tattoo on your chest:
Quarterback Number 1: 262-480 for a 54.6 completion rate, 3,193 yards passing, 23 TDs and 20 INTs for a QB rating of 73.9.
Quarterback Number 2: 297-529 for a 56.1 percent completion rate, 3,336 yards passing, 23 TDs and 20 INTs for a QB rating of 73.9 QB.

Does anyone remember the year Grossman had last year? Well, let me remind you- he was mired in a QB controversy the entire year because of his shaky play and the only thing that allowed him to keep his job was that the defense of the Bears was phenomenal the entire year, carrying the team for games at a time. That is, until they ran into a juggernaut of an offense in the Indianapolis Colts and got destroyed in the Super Bowl by a score of 29-17.
And in case you're wondering, Grossman was 20-28 for 165 yards, one TD and two INTs in the Super Bowl. I think that Eli Manning would be lucky to have numbers that good against the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
So, now let's get to the real quarterback comparison.
Quarterback Number 1: 398-578 for a 68.9 percent completion rate, 4,806 yards passing, 50 TDs and eight INTs for a QT rating of 117.2.
Quarterback Number 2: 297-529 for a 56.1 percent completion rate, 3,336 yards passing, 23 TDs and 20 INTs for a QB rating of 73.9 QB.

Everyone is also talking about how great Manning has been the last three games and I will give him credit for those wins. He's managed the games against Tampa Bay, Dallas and Green Bay especially well while not throwing any interceptions during that time. But he's only thrown four TDs in those three games. Brady, in two playoff games this year, has thrown five TDs.
I'd also like to remind everyone that this game will be played in warm weather, which the Patriots haven't seen since they played on a clear night in Buffalo, winning 56-10 on November 18. Since then, they've played in snow, sleet, rain and freezing cold in just about all of their last eight games. In a stadium that is expected to be dry and warm, Brady will be able to once again go deep at will. Do you remember the record breaking play where Brady threw his 50th TD and Randy Moss caught his record breaking 23rd TD? If not, it's the one where the play before, Moss got wide open a dropped a sure TD. The very next play they ran the exact play and Moss again burned his man for the TD. Look for that play early and often in Super Bowl XLII.
So, take heart, Giants fans, you're basically going into Super Bowl XLII with Rex Grossman leading the way. I have a feeling some of those bandwagoners may be jumping ship soon.
Much more to come next week where we'll break down each offense and each defense. If you're a Giants fan thinking that you'll have a possible chance to redeem yourself in those categories let me warn you- it's going to get ugly. And I'll wrap the Super Bowl hype up with a final pre-game rundown complete with my predicted score.
Labels:
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Thursday, January 24, 2008
Some Links That You May or May Not Enjoy

Packers give ball to Tynes. This stuff would never happen in Boston. We'd skin that ball, light it on fire and then torch the ashes.
A call to the defense. Calling Richard Seymour a dirty player is like saying the sky is blue. After all, he's being mentored by Rodney HGHarrison. Having said that, I can almost hear the Chargers whining all the way across the country.
Dungy to return to Colts. I think it's a bad sign when your coach has to decide between retiring and returning for another season in each of the last three years. And how crazy is it that they already have his successor? Is it bad that I hope this ends poorly for Indy?
Arizona bound. Peter King used to be a good columnist until he started talking about getting speeding tickets, his new found love of American Idol and his choice of coffee. It's called a sports column for a reason and I, for one, would like to read more about sports and less about you wondering if "all the welcome mats in the United States are manufactured in Wisconsin."
Eli Manning able to foil bizarro 'Seinfeld' Eli Manning can once again be the master of his domain. That is a great opening line by Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News. I hope he leads with the headline 'No Soup-erbowl for you, Eli' in two weeks after the Patriots demolish the Giants.
Tom says he’s got QBs licked in Oreo outrage. Seriously, how many commercials can the Manning Family possibly be in?
Brett Favre to decide upon return soon. This is turning into an annual event in Green Bay and I can't imagine him turning away from the game after the year he had.
Welcome to Boston. Lance Armstrong to run the Boston Marathon.
Another sports legend passes away. I'm not sure if this is a sport or not (I tend to think not) but the world of chess says good bye to a legend.
Glendale, Arizona, here come the Patriots:
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Patriots-Chargers Review

Here are my thoughts on Sunday's game that catapulted the Patriots into Super Bowl XLII for the fourth time in six years:

∙ By comparison, Chargers QB Philip Rivers finished 19-37 for 211 yards, no TDs and two INTs. I was prepared to write that Rivers also didn't have a great game but his numbers actually seem to be quite normal for him, which isn't a good thing. I've heard the media reports that Rivers had some type of procedure on his knee earlier in the week in order to get him ready to play but he's no Curt Schilling and I didn't see any bloody knee brace. In fact, some would argue that the Chargers would have been better off if he didn't play. Can we all admit that he's just not that good?
∙ With Sunday's win, the Patriots are now 22-3 under Bill Belicheat in games played after Christmas. That's pretty unbelievable to have your team playing at such a high level so late into the season on a consistent basis.

∙ After losing to the Patriots in last year's playoffs, LaDainian Tomlinson vowed revenge on the Patriots. He's got an odd sense of humor if he thinks rushing for five yards is revenge.
∙ Where's Randy Moss? He had one catch for 18 yards and one run for another 14 yards. Does his restraining order that Rachelle Washington took out on him also tell him to stay out of the end zone? For someone who had 23 TDs in the regular season, he's come up empty the last two games.

∙ I loved the Priceless Pep Talks MasterCard commercial with Peyton Manning saying how sad he was that his NFL season was over. Can you imagine Tom Brady doing a commercial like that? The answer is no and here's why- Tom Brady would never film a commercial in which he has to play the part of a loser. I think it's funny because the commercial was filmed while the season was still going on. I wonder how many times Manning was at practice going over his lines. Here's a real life lesson: if you act like a loser, you probably are a loser. That commercial was priceless.
∙ Rodney HGHarrison played a good game. Hey, like I said, this was a strange game. He had seven tackles, four of which were solo. I didn't see him get burned too many times on coverage and only once saw him come flying into the end of a play after the whistle had blown and the referee let that one slide. In fact, I think HGHarrison gets one free late hit penalty per game. It may even be in his contract.

∙ On a day when the Patriots offense sputtered to get things going, the defense kicked into high gear. San Diego was only 3-12 on third down and only scored three second-half points. By comparison, the Patriots were 7-13 on third downs.
∙ I'm not sure what the rule is regarding a false start but there was an awful lot of movement on San Diego's offensive line that was never called.
∙ Kudos to Norv Turner for not wearing a hat in the first half when the temperature was 20 with a wind chill that made it feel like four degrees. However, I wonder if the cold froze his brain. With the Chargers trailing 21-12 Turner's team was in New England territory with nine minutes to play. The Chargers need a touchdown and a field goal to win the game. Turner punted the ball away and the Chargers offense never took the field again. Maybe there's a reason Turner is a career 69-87-1 head coach.

Up next is a rematch of the week 16 regular season finale against the New York Giants, who somehow managed to squeak into the Super Bowl by going on the road and beating Tampa Bay, Dallas and Green Bay. And if you think the Giants are going to keep the New England Patriots from going 19-0, you're either crazy, drunk, stupid or some kind of insane combination of all three, which we'll now refer to as crunkid.
Much more to come in the days ahead as we endure media hype on top of media hype as people break down and analyze every possible story angle heading into the Super Bowl. Stay tuned.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Patriots-Chargers AFC Championship Game Preview

Okay, up next for the undefeated Patriots are the San Diego Chargers, who come in as winners of eight in a row, including their last six games of the season against Balitmore, Kansas City, Tennessee, Detroit, Denver and Oakland- not exactly the cream of the crop. They finished the regular season at 11-5 and then beat Tennessee at home and Indianapolis on the road with a bunch of back up players that I've never heard of.
To be honest with you, I think that the Chargers are taking a huge risk even making the cross country flight to Massachusetts. That seems like an awful lot of wasted time just to get embarassed by the highest scoring team in NFL history. But, hey, who am I to tell you what to do? If you want to fly across the country, play in single digit temperatures and get humiliated again, so be it. Can you tell where I'm going with my prediction yet?
Here are just a few stats to ponder while you think about just how big of a blowout this is going to be:
The Chargers rack up 315 yards of offense each game, ranking 20th in the NFL. If your offense pretty much sucks is it still called 'racking up offense?' Didn't think so. Their passing game is ranked 26th in the league with 188 yards a game. I went over this last week but I'll do it again for the really slow learners: There are 32 teams in the NFL. The objective of every offensive category is to have a low ranking. Having the 26th best passing game is similar to having the sixth worst passing game. You do the math. The Chargers have a great rushing game that gains 127 yards a game, ranked seventh in the league. And despite a poor passing game and low offensive totals, the Chargers manage to score nearly 26 points a game, fifth best in the NFL.

The Chargers basically look like the Jacksonville Jaguars, only worse.
The Chargers have the same bend don't break mentality that the Patriots have and led the league in creating turnovers (30 interceptions and 18 fumble recoveries). There's only one problem with that: the Patriots had the fewest giveaways in the NFL with nine interceptions (one by a backup QB) and six fumbles for a total of 15 turnovers. I stink at math and even I know that's less than one turnover a game. You know what's insane about the Patriots giveaways, though? None of their running backs committed a turnover this year. Same with the receivers. Think about that for a second. If you combine the regular season and the Patriots one playoff game, here's the breakdown of touches: Laurence Maroney has handled the ball 213 times between catches and rushes without a fumble. Kevin Faulk has 121 touches without a fumble. Wes Welker has 121 catches, seven punt returns, 25 kick returns and four rushing attempts without a fumble. Randy Moss has 99 catches without a fumble.
By comparison, the Patriots offense is ranked first in yards per game with 411, first in passing yards with 295 a game and first in points scored per game with 36.8. Yes, the .8 is very important when you're absolutely decimating the opponent. And, as I said last week, I was shocked to learn that the Patriots run for an average of 115 yards a game. And that was before Laurence Maroney became somewhat of a threat or that I even knew he could run the ball without running into his own guys.
The defense of the Patriots is somewhat deceiving. I don't remember the last time that we played a complete offensive and defensive game. It may have been in Buffalo back in early November when they won 56-10. Or was that the score at halftime? This defensive unit gives up 288 yards of offense, ranked fourth in the league, per game. They give up 98 rushing hards per game, ranked tenth in the league. Their defense gives up 190 passing yards per game, which is good for sixth best in the league. And they only give up 17 points a game, fourth best. But all people seem to be talking about is the vulnerability of our defense, which I don't understand. They gave up the fourth fewest points all year. Yes, I know that we've played shaky at times this year. I know that we have aging linebackers. I know that we're a little slow on pass coverage but does it make that much of a difference when you score 36 points a game? Make that 36.8 points a game.

Like I did last week against Jacksonville, I also went back and looked at the last two times that these teams played and it's not favorable to San Diego.
These teams played in the AFC Divisional Playoff game in San Diego last year where the Patriots came out with a 24-21 win. Tom Brady had one of his worst performances of his career, going 27-51 for 280 yards, two TDs, Three INTs and a fumble. Rivers did nothing spectacular going 14-32 for 230 yards and an interception. The Patriots top receivers for that game where Jabar Gaffney, Rache Caldwell, Troy Brown and Daniel Graham. Only Brown and Gaffney remain Patriots and I don't think Brown has played one offensive down this year and Gaffney is, at best, our fourth receiver this year. So the Patriots had mediocre talent all of last year and their QB pretty much stunk in that game. The game was played in San Diego. And the Patriots won the game anyway.
Now let's fast forward to week two of this year's NFL schedule when San Diego came to Foxboro and were supposedly carrying a grudge from the previous meeting. Or if you're a San Diego fan, perhaps you'd rather not revisit this game. Brady was 25-31 for 279 yards, three TDs and one INT. Rivers was 19-30 for 179 yards, two TDs, two INTs, and two fumbles. Hey, at least he's consistent with his TDs, INTs and fumbles. The Patriots outgained the Chargers 407 to 201. I'm no Albert Einstein but if you double the Chargers offense for the game, you still don't get to 407. Add it all up and you have a 38-14 thumping by the Patriots.
Let's also factor in that San Diego appears to be a mediocre team on a hot streak. They started the year at 5-5 before going on their current winning streak. But for the year, the only winning teams they've beaten are Indianapolis (the game after they lost to the Patriots) and Tennessee in overtime. Those are the same two teams they've beaten in the first two rounds of the playoffs, too. Compare that to the Patriots beating Cleveland, Dallas, Washington, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and the New York Giants, all teams who finished the year with winning records. Oh, and there's also the 38-14 thumping that the Patriots gave the Chargers in the second game of the season. I'd say the Patriots played a lot more difficult schedule than the Chargers and, as you may have heard, came out of it undefeated.


Another advantage that the Patriots have is in coaching. In eight years in New Engalnd, Bill Belicheat is 91-37 for a .711 winning percentage. He's also 13-2 in playoff appearances over that same time, including three Super Bowl titles. For his ten year coaching career, Norv Turner is 69-87-1 and those numbers reflect the Chargers current 11-5 season. It's interesting to note that Turner could lead the Chargers to a 19-0 season next year and still only be one win above .500 for his career.
I think that we also need to factor in the travel schedule for this game, as well. The Patriots played last Saturday night and spent Sunday watching the Colts dismantle the Chargers. Oh, right, I forgot, the Chargers won that game. Anyway, the Chargers had to fly to Indianapolis and back to San Diego and now they have to make an even longer flight to Boston. Or perhaps they're flying into TF Green in Rhode Island. Either way, it doesn't matter. While the Chargers are flying criss cross back and forth across the country, the Patriots are sitting at home resting and practicing. And do I need to mention that Brady is 7-0 at home in the playoffs or would that be considered piling it on?
Oh, and in case you're wondering, San Diego is 4-4 on the road this year. As I've mentioned, the game is in Foxboro. Okay, that's piling it on.
Still excited to visit frigid New England? Didn't think so. Bring on the Packers!
Patriots 41 Chargers 20
Labels:
Bill Belichick,
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Friday, January 18, 2008
NFC Championship Preview

So now the Giants get a rematch of their week two game versus the Green Bay Packers. If you're rooting for the Giants, this may not be a good thing. That game ended with the Packers on top 35-13. The game was played in New York. So let me get this straight- the Giants already got creamed by the Packers earlier this year at home. Now they have to go to Lambeau field in the dead of winter for a playoff game? And their quarterback is still Eli Manning? Yeah, I don't see this ending well for the Giants.
For the year, the Giants rank in the lower half of almost every offensive category except for yards rushing, where they're ranked fourth. They gain an average of 134 yards rushing per game. All of their other offensive stats are scary. And I don't mean scary good. I mean scary bad, including being 16th in total yards, 21st in passing yards and 14th in points scored.
Defensively, the Giants seem to be a relatively decent unit. They're ranked seventh in total yards given up with 305 a game, eighth with 98 yards rushing a game and 11th against the pass with 207 yards a game. But they're ranked 17th in points allowed with nearly 22 a game. That probably won't be a good combination when they play the Packers, who are the fourth best scoring team in the NFL with 27 points a game.

Defensively, I have no idea what's going on with the Packers. They're in the middle of the pack (pun intended) in just about every catergory imagineable, except for points allowed with 18 a game, good for sixth best in the NFL. They give up 210 passing yards a game, which ranks 12th, but lucky for them they're playing against Eli Manning. The Packers give up 103 yards a game rushing and that would have me concerned because the Giants feature Brandon Jacods and Derrick Ward who combined for more than 1,600 yards this season.

The Giants do have a remarkably good road record this year, having gone 7-1 on the road. In addition, they've won both of their playoff games this year on the road, as well. I don't put much stock in their road record, though, because Green Bay is 7-1 at home this year. But if you want to add salt to the open wound or beat a dead horse, Favre has a 43-5 record at home when the temperature dips below 34 degrees at kickoff. The high temperature for the game isn't expected to go above 20.
I just don't see this ending well for the Giants once you combine the Green Bay home field advantage, their far superior passing game, a better running game at this point in the season and the fact that Manning plays for the Giants.
Green Bay 31 New York 16
And congratulations to this Green Bay Packers fan for winning the Father of the Year Award. Even though we still have 11 months left in 2008, I don't think there's much that can top this story.
Patriots-Chargers AFC Championship Game preview coming Saturday.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Some Links That You May or May Not Enjoy

Patriots to honor booed girl. This is one more chance for Robert Kraft to showcase his favorite shirt and tie.
Why bother showing up. I can't disagree with anything he writes.
Observations can't wait. Dan Shaughnessy used to be one of my favorite columnists. The key words there are 'used to be.' Since Jurassic Carl nick named him the Curly Haired Boyfriend, Shaughnessy hasn't been the same. I'm not really even sure why the Globe lets him keep writing this drivel.
Sir Edmund Hillary, first to climb Mount Everest, passes away. Seems kind of cheap to be the first to climb the highest mountain on earth by a few seconds but whatever. . .
Jessica Simpson look alike helps Giants win. Some papers are content to just report the news. The New York Post went out and made the news.
National media wanted Colts-Pats. This guy seems just a tad bitter.
Stallworth slow but gets the job done. Is anyone else worried that Donte Stallworth has an alter ego named Nicco that he sends to Mars on game day? Yeah, me neither.
Pacman faces trouble again. It's good to see that Pac Man Jones is staying out of trouble as he attempts to get reinstated into the NFL. This guy's a loser.
Speaking of losers. It's also nice to see O.J. in jail attire. And did he really hire 'You Ring, We Spring' as his bail bondsman? You know you're in serious trouble when you've got to hire their services.
I was going to use this as my intro to the Patriots-Colts AFC Championship Game preview but that ain't gonna happen:
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Patriots-Jaguars Review

Here are my thoughts on Saturday night's thumping of the Jaguars:

∙ Did the Patriots design two plays in the end zone for Benjamin Watson, who caught both balls for TDs? Strange.
∙ What's up with Randy Mosss only having one catch on the only ball Brady threw in his direction? Like I said, this was just a very strange game plan all around. But it worked.

∙ Brady was sacked on the Patriots first offensive play of the game. He wasn't sacked again the entire game.
∙ Rodney HGHarrison is the most frustrating player to watch. If he played for another team I would absolutely hate him. Heck, he plays for the Patriots and I still might hate him. I think he got called for three personal fouls and there were at least two others that the referees let go. My favorite was the hit on the opening kickoff when he jumped into the end of the play five yards out of bounds. His hardest hit all night was on Richard Seymour, one of his team mates. And yet, he nearly intercepts a pass in the end zone and then comes up with a big pick off on the next series. Frustrating, very frustrating.

∙ Just wondering if the Patriots are out to break as many records as possible this year. Tom Brady finished the game 26-28 for 262 yards and three TDs. His completion percentage was the highest ever in a playoff game and Phil Simms, who previously held the record and was the announcer for the game, was pretty ticked off about it. The two incomplete passes were a dropped ball by Wes Welker that hit him right in the hands and an incomplete pass to Bejamin Watson that could have been called pass interference.
∙ Do you think that Bob Kraft wears the same shirt and tie every day or just on days that the Patriots play? I have a strange feeling he might wear that shirt and tie every day. One thought about Kraft- whenever they show him, he's always in the owners box, where he should be. During the Cowgirls-Giants game on Sunday, I found it interesting that Jerry Jones, the Cowgirls owner, was first shown in his box seats. Then on the last drive by the Cowgirls, he's shown standing about three feet from head coach Wade Phillips. That's gotta drive a coach insane to have the owner standing right next to you. Kraft has hired the right personnel to run his team on game day and he knows that he has no place on the field during a game.
∙ I don't know what to make of the fake play that went for a TD. I've watched it a bunch of times and think it's hilarious. I mean, what was Brady doing there, waving to Gisele? Could he have taken a little longer to throw the ball, maybe grabbed a bite to eat?

∙ You know it's a good day when your punter is only on the field for one play. For the year, Chris Hanson (the Patriots punter in case you've never heard of him) only has 44 punts, lowest number in the NFL this year among full time kickers.
∙ I don't understand the pre-game, half-time and post game analysis by CBS. The half-time show is a copmlete waste. Do they really need five guys sitting around saying the exact same thing? And what happened to Bill Cowher? He looks like he's shrunk to about half of his size. And was that botox leaking out of Dan Marino's face? What happened to the days of showing highlights? And the post-game analysis consisted of letting us know that James Brown was on his way to the hospital for the birth of his grandchild. Good post game wrap up, guys.
∙ Up next for the 17-0 New England Patriots are the San Diego Chargers, who somehow managed to beat Indianapolis on the road with a back up QB and a bunch of scrubs. That's an awfully long flight to come to New England to get demolished.
More NFL picks and pre-game analysis of both AFC Championship games to come later in the week.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Patriots-Jaguars Preview

Let's look at some numbers: The Jaguars are ranked seventh in total yards with 357 a game. They're the second best running team in the league, gaining just under 150 yards per game. However, they only score 25.7 points per game. Their defense is in the middle of the pack in nearly every category I could find, including yards given up, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed. That's not a good combination when you're playing the highest scoring offense in NFL history.
By contrast, the Patriots rank first in total yards gained with 411 per game, first in passing yardage with 295 per game and first in points per game with 36.8. The only offensive stat where they're ranked out of the top five is in rushing yardage, where they're ranked 13th with 115 yards per game. Quite frankly, I thought that was a misprint but apparently the Patriots have somehow managed to have a decent running game this year while throwing the ball 80 percent of the time. Their defense is ranked fourth in yardage and fourth in points allowed.
I just don't see a lot going good for Jacksonville come Saturday night so I went back to 2006 and 2005 to try to get a better handle on this matchup. As it turns out, it looks worse than I thought. Last December, the Patriots went to Jacksonville and completely dominated them, winning the game 34-24 but that isn't what I found interesting. I was shocked to learn that the top three Patriot receivers for the game were Dave Thomas (5 catches, 83 yards, 1 TD), Troy Brown ( 4 catches, 44 yards) and Daniel Graham (3 catches, 44 yards). I have no recollection of Dave Thomas ever playing for the Patriots and Daniel Graham and his 200 dropped passes have been deleted from my memory by 23 TD catches from Randy Moss this year. I doubt Troy Brown will even play one down as a receiver on Saturday. The previous year, the Patriots demolished the Jaguars in the first round of the playoffs with a 28-3 win that featured Corey Dillon, Tim Dwight, David Givens and Andre Davis all making big contributions for the Patriots. That's just a tad bit different than Moss/Welker/Stallworth this year, wouldn't you say?

Let's break it down a little further. The top three receivers for the Jaguars this year are Reggie Williams (38 catches for 629 yards, 10 TDs), Dennis Northcutt (44 catches for 601 yards, 4 TDs) and Ernest Wilford (45 catches for 518 yards, 3 TDs). Please raise your hand if you've ever heard of any of those guys. And if you did rasie your hand, I think you're lying. No offense, but the combination of David Garrard and those three receivers aren't beating the Patriots, even if Rodney HGHarrison is playing for us. Their receivers are so bad that HGHarrison might actually make a few big plays before the whistle blows. Hey, crazier things have happened.

So that pretty much leaves me concerned with the Jaguars running game. They feature two backs, Fred Taylor (1,202 yards rushing, 5 TDs) and Maurice Jones-Drew (768 yards rushing, 9 TDs). That's a pretty potent combination that has gained nearly 2,000 yards rushing this season. Fortunately, the Patriots have given up less than 100 yards rushing on average per game this season. Their defense won't let the Jaguars running game beat them and I don't think that Garrard has the ability or the resources to pull this game out by himself.
One last note about Garrard- I saw the 4th down play against Pittsburgh where he scrambled for the first down and got the Jaguars in field goal position to win the game. My first thought was that Garrard initially dropped the ball and a lineman picked it up because Garrard looked like a tub of lard running down the field. He's listed at 240 pounds but that may have been his birth weight. For the game, Garrard was 9 out of 21 for 140 yards. He threw one TD and two picks. Based on those numbers, maybe he is the backup QB. This year alone, the Jaguars were 0-4 when they fell behind by more than seven points so what happens if the Patriots jump out to an early 10 or 14 point lead and the Jaguars have to abandon the run? I just don't see Garrard coming in here against guys like Richard Seymour, Jarvis Green, Vince Wilfork, Mike Vrabel, Junior Seau, Tedy Bruschi and even a blitzing HGHarrison and having the kind of game he needs in order to beat the Patriots. And I haven't even mentioned the fact that this game is in Foxboro, where Tom Brady is 6-0 during the playoffs in his career.

Another factor going into this game is how rested the Patriots will be, and I'm not just talking about having a first round bye- I'm talking about the travel schedule since the beginining of November. The Patriots played Indianapolis the first week of November. Following that game they had a bye week, followed by a trip to Buffalo, a home game, a trip to Baltimore, three home games in a row and then a trip to the Meadowlands. They didn't even travel out of their own time zone during that time. Over that same time frame, the Jaguars went to Tennessee, played two at home, went to Indianapolis, played one at home, went to Pittsburgh, played one at home and then went to Houston. And then they played their first round game in Pittsburgh last week. Basically, in the last nine weeks, the Jaguars have had a much more difficult travel schedule while playing two more games than the Patriots. Those types of things start to add up this time of year.
Yes, the Patriots have played a very physical last month of the season against teams that were giving them everything they had. And yet, the Patriots still came out of it with a perfect record. They had a bye week to rest up and get in extra work on areas where they need to improve (like giving up big plays on third down and tightening up their run defense). These guys know that the 16-0 regular season will only mean something if they win the Super Bowl and I don't see Jacksonville even coming close to knocking them out of the playoffs. Keep in mind that this final score may not actually reflect how much of a complete blow out this might turn into.
New England 45 Jacksonville 17
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Divisional Playoff Picks

Divisional Playoffs
Saturday, Jan. 12
Seattle at GREEN BAY

The nod goes to Green Bay for three reasons. The first is that the game is in Green Bay and that's a nearly impossible place to win a game, let alone in the playoffs. I have no clue how the whole wearing a block of cheese on your head started but it apparently helps the Packers. Green Bay is 7-1 at home this year while Seattle has a 3-5 road record. That's not a good combination if you're rooting for the Seahawks.
Second, I just don't think that Seattle is that good. They play in the NFC West which is an easy division and the only playoff teams they beat all year were Tampa Bay and Washington last week. Beating those teams is nothing to brag about. By contrast, Green Bay has beaten the Giants, Chargers and Redskins, in addition to beating the Vikings twice. I have no clue how they lost two games to the Bears this year but they did. And their only other loss came to Dallas (look for that trend to continue next week). In addition, since winning the starting RB job earlier this season, Ryan Grant has gained nearly 1,000 yards in ten games. He is who Seattle RB Shaun Alexander used to be- someone who took the pressure off of the quarterback, could be counted on to run down the clock and was always good for 100 yards a game.
The third reason is Brett Favre. I don't remember the last time he was in the playoffs and, perhaps he doesn't either because it's been so long. I'm sure he'll come out ready to play in what will most definitely not be his last year as a starting QB.
Green Bay 27 Seattle 17
As a side note, can someone please tell me what a Packer is?
Jacksonville at NEW ENGLAND
Much more to come Friday but if I were Jacksonville, I might consider surrendering now and saving myself the embarassment. Perhaps they could give their plane tickets to a school so some little Floridians can come see Plymouth Rock or walk the Freedom Trail. I can see this one being ugly early and often.
Sunday, Jan. 13
San Diego at INDIANAPOLIS
I watched part of the Chargers-Titans game last weekend and was so disgusted with San Diego QB Philip Rivers that I felt sick. The only thing the Chargers had going for them all day is that Vince Young is the Titans QB and he's just awful. Once Young checks off his first receiver, it looks like he has no clue what to do. And yeah, he may be fast now but give him another year or two before he has a major knee injury from all of the scrambling and the Titans are going to be left looking for another QB- that may not be a bad thing in the long run.

Billy Volek is the Chargers backup QB and all I have to say is that he must really stink if he can't beat out Philip Rivers. For the year, Rivers has thrown 3,150 yards, 21 TDs and 15 INTs. Based on the QB ratings, Rivers is ranked number 18 for the year among all starting NFL quarterbacks, which is not good news for a playoff team. The other seven remaining starting QBs in the playoffs are all ranked in the top eight based on their QB rating. In fact, the only category that I could find Rivers listed in the top ten was in the number of interceptions he's thrown this year and that's not a good thing.
For the year, the Chargers have the 26th best passing offense. In actuality, the 26th best offense can also be dubbed the 6th worst offense. The Colts have the second best pass defense and give up the fewest points in the entire league with 16.4 per game. That's not a good combination for the Chargers. Factor in that this game is being played in the RCA Dome where they pump in crowd volume and I give the Chargers next to no chance of winning this game. Actually, factor in that Norv Turner coaches the Chargers and I give them zero chance of winning this game.
Colts 41 Chargers 13

Last week against the Bucaneers, I somehow managed to convince myself that the Giants would win. There will be no convincing me this week. Heck, Jessica Simpson could show up to do the coin flip and I would still pick the Cowgirls.
The Giants lost twice to Dallas earlier this year, 45-35 and 31-20. I don't see anything changing this week. Dallas has the second highest scoring offense in the league at 28.4 points per game. Dallas also comes in with the third highest yardage per game stat at 365 yards per game. But what this game really comes down to is Eli Manning and that never makes me feel good. For the year, Manning threw for 3,336 yards with 23 TDs and 20 INTs for a QB rating of 73.9. I just don't think he's that good and he'll probably spend most of the game running around the backfield or laying flat on his back wondering if his own team recovered another one of his fumbles or not.
By contrast, Tony Romo threw for 4,211 yards, 36 TDs and 19 INTs for a QB rating of 97.4. Not bad for a second year QB. I know that TO will be a game-time decision but, even without him, I think that the Cowgirls easily win this game.
Dallas 31 New York 17
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Some Links That You May or May Not Enjoy

Here's a nice recap of the Patriots season to date. I'm trying not to be too excited about being 16-0 but it is fun to read a recap of each game. And I completely forgot that Randy Moss never played a snap in the preseason.
I'm not sure I'm buying this explanation. Seriously, he couldn't think of something better than his dog ate it?
Vindicated. We all balked at Jose Canseco's first book, Juiced, but much of what he wrote was proven true. If I were a former team mate that used steroids with Canseco, I'd start worrying. Somewhere, Stray-Rod may be getting a little nervous.
More awards for Tom Brady and the Patriots. I won't run a whole column on this one but how did Brett Favre get a vote? Randy Moss and Wes Welker I can understand but Favre?
I don't get this. So let me get this straight- doing drugs will actually cut Michael Vick's sentence by one year? Umm, am I the only one who sees a problem with this?
Rog's pitch off target. For those of you who aren't fortunate enough to listen to WEEI or read the Boston Herald, this is one of my favorite radio personalities/sports writers.
Special Report: Roger Clemens. This is probably way more information on Roger Clemens and Brian McNamee than any one could ever read.
Nike to release 23rd Air Jordan. Does anyone else see a problem with a basketball shoe selling for $230?
34 year winning streak halted. This streak spanned 12,396 days, six presidents and 34 Super Bowls.
Sports Bloopers. I like watching people wipe out.
And more sports bloopers. Seriously, I like watching people wipe out.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Brett Favre Comes in Second in MVP Voting

In winning the Award, Brady said that individual accomplishments don't rule his world. "As I have learned over the course of my time with the Patriots, the most meaningful accomplishments are always the ones I have celebrated with my teammates," he said. Yeah, like those three Super Bowls!
Let's look at the numbers to try to make some sense of all this madness: Brady threw for 4,806 yards, which was 383 more than any other quarterback. He completed 68.9 percent of his passes. He threw 50 TDs to eight INTs for a QB rating of 117.2. The league record for QB rating is 121.1, which is apparently the only record that Brady didn't break this year. He had 12 games this year where he threw at least three TDs. New England scored 589 points and 75 touchdowns, both records. Oh, and in case you've had your head buried in the sand, Brady is the first QB to lead his team to a 16-0 regular season.
By comparison, Favre threw for 4,155 yards, fourth most in the league. He completed 66.5 percent of his passes (also ranking fourth) while throwing for 28 TDs (tied for sixth) and 15 INTs (tied for 11th most in the league). His QB rating for the year was 95.7, placing him sixth among all QBs this year. His team finished 13-3.

"He deserves it," Bill Belicheat said. "I have thought for a long time that there is no past or present quarterback I'd rather coach than Tom Brady, and I am more certain of that every year he plays."
Look, getting 49 out of 50 votes is pretty cool but if the Patriots play the Packers in the Super Bowl, look for the Pats to score at least 50 points. . in the first half. As it is, I can easily see Brady and Belicheat taking out their grudges against the NFL voters against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Saturday night. Belicheat only received 29 of 50 votes for Coach of the Year and now Brady gets slapped in the face by only receiving 49 of 50 votes for MVP. It could get very ugly Saturday night.
More to come later in the week on the Patriots-Jaguars game and all of my NFL picks for the weekend.
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