Patriots-Chargers AFC Championship Game Preview

Up next for the undefeated Patriots are the Indianapolis Colts, who come in at. . . . Huh? The Colts lost? Serious? To the Chargers? Noooo. Really? Wow, the NFL has been promoting the Patriots-Colts AFC title game for more than two months but apparently Peyton Manning must have had to film a few commercials Sunday and couldn't make the game.

Okay, up next for the undefeated Patriots are the San Diego Chargers, who come in as winners of eight in a row, including their last six games of the season against Balitmore, Kansas City, Tennessee, Detroit, Denver and Oakland- not exactly the cream of the crop. They finished the regular season at 11-5 and then beat Tennessee at home and Indianapolis on the road with a bunch of back up players that I've never heard of.

To be honest with you, I think that the Chargers are taking a huge risk even making the cross country flight to Massachusetts. That seems like an awful lot of wasted time just to get embarassed by the highest scoring team in NFL history. But, hey, who am I to tell you what to do? If you want to fly across the country, play in single digit temperatures and get humiliated again, so be it. Can you tell where I'm going with my prediction yet?

Here are just a few stats to ponder while you think about just how big of a blowout this is going to be:

The Chargers rack up 315 yards of offense each game, ranking 20th in the NFL. If your offense pretty much sucks is it still called 'racking up offense?' Didn't think so. Their passing game is ranked 26th in the league with 188 yards a game. I went over this last week but I'll do it again for the really slow learners: There are 32 teams in the NFL. The objective of every offensive category is to have a low ranking. Having the 26th best passing game is similar to having the sixth worst passing game. You do the math. The Chargers have a great rushing game that gains 127 yards a game, ranked seventh in the league. And despite a poor passing game and low offensive totals, the Chargers manage to score nearly 26 points a game, fifth best in the NFL.

The Chargers defense (if you want to call it that) gives up 320 yards a game, ranking 14th in the league. Their rushing defense gives up 107 yards a game, ranking 16th in the league. Their passing defense gives up an average of 213 yards a game, ranking 14th in the league. Do you see a pattern here? However, their defense gives up just under 18 points a game, ranking fifth in the league, so at least they have that going for them. The defensive combination of Shawn Merriman and Shaun Phillips (no relation to their QB) have produced 21 sacks this season but those two were non-existent in the Indianapolis game last week.

The Chargers basically look like the Jacksonville Jaguars, only worse.

The Chargers have the same bend don't break mentality that the Patriots have and led the league in creating turnovers (30 interceptions and 18 fumble recoveries). There's only one problem with that: the Patriots had the fewest giveaways in the NFL with nine interceptions (one by a backup QB) and six fumbles for a total of 15 turnovers. I stink at math and even I know that's less than one turnover a game. You know what's insane about the Patriots giveaways, though? None of their running backs committed a turnover this year. Same with the receivers. Think about that for a second. If you combine the regular season and the Patriots one playoff game, here's the breakdown of touches: Laurence Maroney has handled the ball 213 times between catches and rushes without a fumble. Kevin Faulk has 121 touches without a fumble. Wes Welker has 121 catches, seven punt returns, 25 kick returns and four rushing attempts without a fumble. Randy Moss has 99 catches without a fumble.

By comparison, the Patriots offense is ranked first in yards per game with 411, first in passing yards with 295 a game and first in points scored per game with 36.8. Yes, the .8 is very important when you're absolutely decimating the opponent. And, as I said last week, I was shocked to learn that the Patriots run for an average of 115 yards a game. And that was before Laurence Maroney became somewhat of a threat or that I even knew he could run the ball without running into his own guys.

The defense of the Patriots is somewhat deceiving. I don't remember the last time that we played a complete offensive and defensive game. It may have been in Buffalo back in early November when they won 56-10. Or was that the score at halftime? This defensive unit gives up 288 yards of offense, ranked fourth in the league, per game. They give up 98 rushing hards per game, ranked tenth in the league. Their defense gives up 190 passing yards per game, which is good for sixth best in the league. And they only give up 17 points a game, fourth best. But all people seem to be talking about is the vulnerability of our defense, which I don't understand. They gave up the fourth fewest points all year. Yes, I know that we've played shaky at times this year. I know that we have aging linebackers. I know that we're a little slow on pass coverage but does it make that much of a difference when you score 36 points a game? Make that 36.8 points a game.

Look, I don't really care how many points the Patriots defense gives up or how maddening it can be to watch them give up big plays on third down or have mediocre opposing quarterbacks throw for close to 300 yards a game against them. Heck, I don't even care that Rodney HGHarrison probably couldn't cover my sister right now on a deep route. The fact is that San Diego gives up a ton of yards and that's not a good thing when you're playing New England. Do you honestly think that they're going to somehow contain the NFL's highest scoring offense in the history of the league? Yeah, didn't think so.

Like I did last week against Jacksonville, I also went back and looked at the last two times that these teams played and it's not favorable to San Diego.

These teams played in the AFC Divisional Playoff game in San Diego last year where the Patriots came out with a 24-21 win. Tom Brady had one of his worst performances of his career, going 27-51 for 280 yards, two TDs, Three INTs and a fumble. Rivers did nothing spectacular going 14-32 for 230 yards and an interception. The Patriots top receivers for that game where Jabar Gaffney, Rache Caldwell, Troy Brown and Daniel Graham. Only Brown and Gaffney remain Patriots and I don't think Brown has played one offensive down this year and Gaffney is, at best, our fourth receiver this year. So the Patriots had mediocre talent all of last year and their QB pretty much stunk in that game. The game was played in San Diego. And the Patriots won the game anyway.

Now let's fast forward to week two of this year's NFL schedule when San Diego came to Foxboro and were supposedly carrying a grudge from the previous meeting. Or if you're a San Diego fan, perhaps you'd rather not revisit this game. Brady was 25-31 for 279 yards, three TDs and one INT. Rivers was 19-30 for 179 yards, two TDs, two INTs, and two fumbles. Hey, at least he's consistent with his TDs, INTs and fumbles. The Patriots outgained the Chargers 407 to 201. I'm no Albert Einstein but if you double the Chargers offense for the game, you still don't get to 407. Add it all up and you have a 38-14 thumping by the Patriots.

Let's also factor in that San Diego appears to be a mediocre team on a hot streak. They started the year at 5-5 before going on their current winning streak. But for the year, the only winning teams they've beaten are Indianapolis (the game after they lost to the Patriots) and Tennessee in overtime. Those are the same two teams they've beaten in the first two rounds of the playoffs, too. Compare that to the Patriots beating Cleveland, Dallas, Washington, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and the New York Giants, all teams who finished the year with winning records. Oh, and there's also the 38-14 thumping that the Patriots gave the Chargers in the second game of the season. I'd say the Patriots played a lot more difficult schedule than the Chargers and, as you may have heard, came out of it undefeated.

If you're San Diego, are you still excited to be coming to Foxboro? Well then, let me dampen your spirits even further by breaking down the two starting QBs. My apologies once again to Tom Brady for even putting him in the same category as Philip Rivers. Philip Rivers threw for 3,152 yards while throwing like a girl, completed 60.2 percent of his passes, had 21 TDs, and 15 INTs for a QB rating of 82.4. And Rivers put those numbers up when he was healthy. Now factor in that he has two bad knees and is going against a good pass rushing defense and we might be looking at Billy Volek coming in to back him up by the end of the first quarter. And I wouldn't get too excited about Volek's drive to win the game in Indianapolis last week. There's a reason that he's been a backup QB for the majority of his career- it's because he's not very good. Hence the role of backup QB. On the flip side, Tom Brady threw for 4,806 yards, completed 68.9 percent of his passes, had 50 TDs, and 8 INTs for a QB rating of 117. Double the number of TDs thrown by Rivers and you're still eight shy of the number thrown by Brady this year. Who would you rather have?

The one area that does concern me is the rushing game of the Chargers, where LaDainian Tomlinson racks up huge numbers. He rushed for nearly 1,500 yards this season with 15 TDs. He caught 60 balls out of the backfield for close to another 500 yards and three more TDs, too. They also have Michael Turner who comes in to give Tomlinson a breather and he rushed for 316 yards this year. That's a dangerous combination for the Patriots. But similar to last week, I think that the Patriots will be able to contain the running game and force Rivers to try to beat them. Let's keep in mind that Tomlinson is also banged up and sat out a good portion of the Chargers-Colts game this past weekend. Are we sure the Chargers won that game? Voted the best dressed NFL player, Tomlinson has basically spent more time this week picking out his clothes than he has practicing. Not a good sign if you're a Chargers fan.

Another advantage that the Patriots have is in coaching. In eight years in New Engalnd, Bill Belicheat is 91-37 for a .711 winning percentage. He's also 13-2 in playoff appearances over that same time, including three Super Bowl titles. For his ten year coaching career, Norv Turner is 69-87-1 and those numbers reflect the Chargers current 11-5 season. It's interesting to note that Turner could lead the Chargers to a 19-0 season next year and still only be one win above .500 for his career.

I think that we also need to factor in the travel schedule for this game, as well. The Patriots played last Saturday night and spent Sunday watching the Colts dismantle the Chargers. Oh, right, I forgot, the Chargers won that game. Anyway, the Chargers had to fly to Indianapolis and back to San Diego and now they have to make an even longer flight to Boston. Or perhaps they're flying into TF Green in Rhode Island. Either way, it doesn't matter. While the Chargers are flying criss cross back and forth across the country, the Patriots are sitting at home resting and practicing. And do I need to mention that Brady is 7-0 at home in the playoffs or would that be considered piling it on?

Oh, and in case you're wondering, San Diego is 4-4 on the road this year. As I've mentioned, the game is in Foxboro. Okay, that's piling it on.

Still excited to visit frigid New England? Didn't think so. Bring on the Packers!

Patriots 41 Chargers 20