Patriots-Jaguars Preview

Up next for the AFC East Champions, highest scoring team in NFL history and 16-0 New England Patriots are the Jacksonville Jaguars. I had originally thought that the Jaguars might give the Patriots a good game but I'm not too sure anymore.

Let's look at some numbers: The Jaguars are ranked seventh in total yards with 357 a game. They're the second best running team in the league, gaining just under 150 yards per game. However, they only score 25.7 points per game. Their defense is in the middle of the pack in nearly every category I could find, including yards given up, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed. That's not a good combination when you're playing the highest scoring offense in NFL history.

By contrast, the Patriots rank first in total yards gained with 411 per game, first in passing yardage with 295 per game and first in points per game with 36.8. The only offensive stat where they're ranked out of the top five is in rushing yardage, where they're ranked 13th with 115 yards per game. Quite frankly, I thought that was a misprint but apparently the Patriots have somehow managed to have a decent running game this year while throwing the ball 80 percent of the time. Their defense is ranked fourth in yardage and fourth in points allowed.

I just don't see a lot going good for Jacksonville come Saturday night so I went back to 2006 and 2005 to try to get a better handle on this matchup. As it turns out, it looks worse than I thought. Last December, the Patriots went to Jacksonville and completely dominated them, winning the game 34-24 but that isn't what I found interesting. I was shocked to learn that the top three Patriot receivers for the game were Dave Thomas (5 catches, 83 yards, 1 TD), Troy Brown ( 4 catches, 44 yards) and Daniel Graham (3 catches, 44 yards). I have no recollection of Dave Thomas ever playing for the Patriots and Daniel Graham and his 200 dropped passes have been deleted from my memory by 23 TD catches from Randy Moss this year. I doubt Troy Brown will even play one down as a receiver on Saturday. The previous year, the Patriots demolished the Jaguars in the first round of the playoffs with a 28-3 win that featured Corey Dillon, Tim Dwight, David Givens and Andre Davis all making big contributions for the Patriots. That's just a tad bit different than Moss/Welker/Stallworth this year, wouldn't you say?

The other thing that I'm confused about is the play of David Garrard, who is apparently the Jaguars starting QB. In some of the clippings I've read about him he's listed as the backup QB and in others he's the starting QB. That tells me he's shaky at best. Garrard threw for 2,509 yards, 18 TDs and 3 INTs this year in only 12 games. He didn't have one game this year where he threw for more than 300 yards. I don't even think I should list Brady's stats because I think it's disrespectful to include him in the same category as Garrard but here goes (sorry, Tom): Brady threw for 4,806 yards, 50 TDs and 8 INTs. There's just no comparison. And keep in mind that he put up these numbers when the Patriots don't even line up a running back half of the time, giving the opposing defense a pretty good idea that it's going to be a pass play.

Let's break it down a little further. The top three receivers for the Jaguars this year are Reggie Williams (38 catches for 629 yards, 10 TDs), Dennis Northcutt (44 catches for 601 yards, 4 TDs) and Ernest Wilford (45 catches for 518 yards, 3 TDs). Please raise your hand if you've ever heard of any of those guys. And if you did rasie your hand, I think you're lying. No offense, but the combination of David Garrard and those three receivers aren't beating the Patriots, even if Rodney HGHarrison is playing for us. Their receivers are so bad that HGHarrison might actually make a few big plays before the whistle blows. Hey, crazier things have happened.

Let's compare the Jaguars top three receivers to the Patriots top three recievers (I'll try not to laugh while doing this). Randy Moss had 98 catches for 1,493 yards and 23 TDs, a league record in case you hadn't heard. Wes Welker had 112 catches for 1,175 yards and 8 TDs. Donte Stallworth had 46 catches for 697 yards and 3 TDs. Basically, our third receiver had more yards than the Jaguars top reciever. I don't see this going good for Jacksonville. Just out of curiousity, does anyone miss Deion Branch? Didn't think so. Umm, does anyone even remember who Deion Branch is?

So that pretty much leaves me concerned with the Jaguars running game. They feature two backs, Fred Taylor (1,202 yards rushing, 5 TDs) and Maurice Jones-Drew (768 yards rushing, 9 TDs). That's a pretty potent combination that has gained nearly 2,000 yards rushing this season. Fortunately, the Patriots have given up less than 100 yards rushing on average per game this season. Their defense won't let the Jaguars running game beat them and I don't think that Garrard has the ability or the resources to pull this game out by himself.

One last note about Garrard- I saw the 4th down play against Pittsburgh where he scrambled for the first down and got the Jaguars in field goal position to win the game. My first thought was that Garrard initially dropped the ball and a lineman picked it up because Garrard looked like a tub of lard running down the field. He's listed at 240 pounds but that may have been his birth weight. For the game, Garrard was 9 out of 21 for 140 yards. He threw one TD and two picks. Based on those numbers, maybe he is the backup QB. This year alone, the Jaguars were 0-4 when they fell behind by more than seven points so what happens if the Patriots jump out to an early 10 or 14 point lead and the Jaguars have to abandon the run? I just don't see Garrard coming in here against guys like Richard Seymour, Jarvis Green, Vince Wilfork, Mike Vrabel, Junior Seau, Tedy Bruschi and even a blitzing HGHarrison and having the kind of game he needs in order to beat the Patriots. And I haven't even mentioned the fact that this game is in Foxboro, where Tom Brady is 6-0 during the playoffs in his career.

Now let's factor in the importance of having a first round bye. Since the NFL went to it's current format in 1990, teams coming off a bye week in the playoffs have gone 53-15, a .779 winning percentage. As Bill Belicheat would say, that stat has no bearing on the game Saturday. Consider this, though: under Belicheat, the Patriots are 5-0 in the postseason when they have a first round bye and are 11-2 following a bye week for his entire time with the Patriots. There's a reason that Belicheat's won three Super Bowl's in New England and it's because he gets his team ready to play, espcecially following a bye week.

Another factor going into this game is how rested the Patriots will be, and I'm not just talking about having a first round bye- I'm talking about the travel schedule since the beginining of November. The Patriots played Indianapolis the first week of November. Following that game they had a bye week, followed by a trip to Buffalo, a home game, a trip to Baltimore, three home games in a row and then a trip to the Meadowlands. They didn't even travel out of their own time zone during that time. Over that same time frame, the Jaguars went to Tennessee, played two at home, went to Indianapolis, played one at home, went to Pittsburgh, played one at home and then went to Houston. And then they played their first round game in Pittsburgh last week. Basically, in the last nine weeks, the Jaguars have had a much more difficult travel schedule while playing two more games than the Patriots. Those types of things start to add up this time of year.

Yes, the Patriots have played a very physical last month of the season against teams that were giving them everything they had. And yet, the Patriots still came out of it with a perfect record. They had a bye week to rest up and get in extra work on areas where they need to improve (like giving up big plays on third down and tightening up their run defense). These guys know that the 16-0 regular season will only mean something if they win the Super Bowl and I don't see Jacksonville even coming close to knocking them out of the playoffs. Keep in mind that this final score may not actually reflect how much of a complete blow out this might turn into.

New England 45 Jacksonville 17