I Was Wrong About My ALCS Prediction

Well, this isn't going quite as well as I would have hoped for at this point in the series. I'll admit, I was wrong about my prediction of Sox in six. In fact, I even revised my prediction to Sox in five after seeing T shirts announcing that the Rays took down Red Sox nation before the series even began. Boy was I wrong about that one.

But I wasn't wrong about who's going to win this series, just the number of games it will take. I guess we'll have to settle for Sox in seven. And really, the only disappointing thing is that Jon Lester won't be able to pitch game one of the World Series after pitching game seven of the ALCS.

The scary thing about what's taking place is that I don't see the Rays going anywhere in the foreseeable future. This doesn't appear to be a fluky year for them like some teams have had in recent years. They have a lot of young, talented players who are under contract for very little money, as well as a decent pitching staff to go along with it- at least their pitching looks good when you have players like JD Drew swinging at pitches two feet off the plate.

Anyway, if the Rays weren't completely demolishing my favorite baseball team, I might actually like this team, especially their manager, Joe Madden. He looks amazingly like the character in the movie Falling Down right down to the glasses. It's sort of uncanny the way that Michael Douglas' character in the movie goes berserck and the Rays are going berserck on the Sox. I might actually have to add that one to my Netflix list:






Here are just a few quick thoughts on the Boston Massacre that's taken place over the last three games while wondering if the Red Sox have the Rays right where they want them:

The only reason you need to know about the Sox losing three straight to the Rays is that their starting pitching has given up 17 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings for an ERA of 12.08. And they did it all while giving up eight homers and 28 baserunners. That's a pretty amazing feat for less than 13 innings of work. In fact, when I first saw it, I thought that was Matt Clement's pitching line for the last year he was with Boston.

Another major factor has been hitting: Jacoby Ellsbury is 0 for the series, and the Red Sox are 0 for the leadoff spot. David Ortiz broke out of an 0-14 slump by hitting a triple last night. . . when the score was 11-1. Is Little Papi even capable of hitting it the opposite way to avoid the ridiculous shift they put on him? After the game, Ortiz was quoted as saying that "we need to stop their defense." He was clearly getting loaded up on the Jack Daniels a little early when he made that comment because I have no clue what that means. Here's an idea, though: how about not throwing the ball right down the middle of the plate so that mediocre players can hit it over the Mass Pike 500 feet away.

And if this does turn out to be the end of their run to the World Series, Jason Varitek is finishing his Red Sox career in an 0 for 195 streak. That last stat might actually be accurate considering that I don't even remember the last time he got a hit. I don't care how well he handles the pitching staff, it's time time for him to move on in the offseason.

And speaking of moving on, even if the Red Sox reach the World Series, last night had to be Tim Wakefield's last start in a Red Sox uniform. At 42, I just don't see bringing him back for another start, let alone another year. This is a guy who has been a terrific starting pitcher for a long time for the Red Sox but his career postseason record of 5-6 with a 6.75 ERA just isn't good enough anymore.

And speaking of moving on (part deux), there was a reason that Mike Timlin was left off of the first round playoff roster. It's because the guy is old and hasn't been able to get anyone out the entire year. He's another player that has serviced this team well over the year's but it's time for him to move on, as well. And when I say move on, I mean retire.

And just in case this situation looks very familiar, it should. Let's revisit some recent history:

2004 ALCS

2007 ALCS

You know one of the only things I remember about all of those history classes I took growing up? It's that history is bound to repeat itself. So I'm revising my pick once again. Sox in seven even though I have no confidence that Big Papi could be a starting DH on a softball team at this point in the year, let alone the starting DH in the ALCS.

Anyway, here's today's history lesson: