Sox vs. Rays Preview

I didn't even bother doing a first round playoff preview because it seemed like such a waste of time. Not only are the Angels approaching the Cubs in terms of playoff meltdowns but the Red Sox eliminating the Angels from the playoffs is just like the leaves changing colors- it happens every year. After falling behind 0-2, did you really think that the Angels were going to win three straight against the defending World Series Champions, two of which were in Boston? Yeah, didn't think so.

I will say this about the clinching game last night: if featured two of the dumbest managerial moves I've seen since the days of Grady Little. First, Terry Francona pulls Jon Lester after seven phenomenal innings only to see his bullpen cough up two runs to tie it at two heading into the ninth. I know that Lester had thrown over 100 pitches but he was lights out. Unless his arm was falling off, I'd have liked to see him at least go out for the eight. If he gives up a hit or two then pull him but to bring in Hideki Heart Attack Okajima in that game is insane.

Not to be outdone, Mike Scoscia has the go ahead run on third base in the ninth inning with one out, the batter has a 2-0 count and Manny DelCarmen can't find the strike zone. What does the Angels manager do- calls the suicide squeeze. In a tie game. Of the divisional playoffs. In a game you have to win. With a batter who hit .111 for the series. We all know that Erik Aybar missed the bunt and Jason Varitek made a great play to tag out the runner heading back to third. When you make calls like that, you deserve to lose.

The fact that the Red Sox pulled off another ninth inning playoff series clinching win would have been an amazing feat had it not become almost assumed against a team like the Angels.

But enough of the Angels. Bring on the Devil Rays. Oh, yeah, it's just the Rays. So bring on the Rays. Or should we be calling them the Tampa Bay Cinderella Rays because they've come out of no where to win the AL East title this year. Before I start ripping on the Rays, I will say this- they play in the hardest division in all of baseball and they never faded this year, like so many people said they would, myself included. So I have to give them a lot of credit for moving out of the cellar in the AL East and making things interesting. And honestly, beating the Yankees in the playoffs was getting a bit old. So welcome to the show, Tampa Bay.

Having said all that, I'd be kidding myself if I wasn't a bit concerned about this series because I actually think it might go six games. That's how good I think the Rays are but the fact remains that no team with a purple mascot is beating the Red Sox.

Let's break down some numbers from the regular season, which tend to mean absolutely nothing come October. For the year, the Rays and Red Sox met 18 times with the Rays coming out on top with ten wins. Looking at the numbers a little more closely and I think you'll see that those wins look more like an abberation than a trend.

In the 18 games that these two teams played, Tampa Bay hit .233. The Red Sox hit .253. Tampa Bay scored 67 runs, which is an average of 3.72 a game. The Red Sox scored 87 runs for an average of 4.83. And yes, I think the .83 might be a factor in this series. For the year, Tampa's offensive numbers are in the middle of the pack, coming in 13th in hitting with a .260 average and ninth in OBP with .774. Meanwhile, the Red Sox continue to be one of the best hitting teams in all of baseball with a .280 average (second best) and an .845 OBP (also second best).

Now that we know that the Red Sox have the better offensive numbers, let's break down the pitching. If you're a Rays fan, you may want to skip this section. For the 18 games, Tampa's ERA was 4.44 to the Sox' 3.35. You all know that I'm no math genius but the Sox' ERA is more than a run better than Tampa's. And over the same games, the Red Sox pitching staff struck out 156 Rays, while Tampa's staff only struck out 121 Sox batters. Pitching is going to be key in this series and the Red Sox have the clear edge.

I'd also like to take a look at Lester just a bit closer, if you'll allow me a moment. In his last 22 2/3 postseason innings, Lester hasn't given up an earned run. In 20 innings agains the Rays this year, Lester only gave up two runs. As it looks right now, Lester will be working game two and game six. That's not good news for the Rays.

I know that Tampa Bay has the home field advantage but how much is that really going to factor in this series when 75 percent of the fans who live in Tampa root for the Red Sox? The Rays did go 57-24 at home this year, which is an amazing number and tops in all of baseball, but they're under .500 on the road.

Let's also keep in mind that the Red Sox now have the best closer in all of postseason play of the teams remaining. For his career, Jonathan Papelbon has never allowed a run in 19 2/3 innings in his postseason career, which is only one-third of an inning short of the major league record held by Joe Niekro.

At some point during this series, we're going to hear the clock striking midnight and the glass slipper is coming off of Cinderella and the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays will transform back into the AAA club they've been for the last decade.

Sox in six. Bring on Mannywood.