Super Bowl XLII Preview, Part III

I've gone through the quarterbacks and the defense of each team in my last two Super Bowl preview posts and, in my opinion, the Patriots come out with the advantage in both categories. However, you're entitled to be wrong by having your own opinion if you so choose. Now I'm going to break down the offense of each team and there's one phrase I'm going to continue to repeat throughout this post (and it's not a good thing if you like the Giants): record setting offense.

On the regular season road to 16-0, the Patriots racked up offense like no team in NFL history. They set the single season scoring record by a team with 589 points, they set the single season touchdown record by a team with 75, their quarterback set a single season TD record, their wide receiver caught the most TDs ever by a wide reciever in one year, and they set the most records ever set in one season. I think that they also set the record for number of 1972 Miami Dolphin players that have embarassed themselves by commenting on the Patriots season.

By comparison, the New York Giants have. . . Ummm, . . . Well, they've. . . ahh . . well they did score 373 points this year. Oh, that's probably not a good example because the Patriots scored over 200 points more than that. Wow, that's a lot of points to score over another team in only 16 games. To be precise, the Patriots actually score 13.5 points more per game than the Giants. And you were wondering why the early Las Vegas lines had the Patriots as +12 favorites. In fact, during the regular season, the Giants outscored their opponents by a combined total of just 22 points. Yes, 22 points over a 16 game schedule. The Patriots, by comparison, outscored their opponents by 315 points. And no, that is not a misprint.

Similar to my observations on each team's defense, I'm going to break down each offense by four categories and their rankings in each category: yards per game, rusing yards, passing yards and average points scored per game. Maybe if you're a Giants fan you don't want to look at these numbers:





Again, sorry for the fuzziness but it's the best I can do. I can't even believe that I'm going to talk about the running game of the Patriots when we have MVP Tom Brady throwing TDs left and right but we have actually developed a legitimate running game lately. Laurence Maroney in the last five games, including the two playoff games, has rushed for 550 yards, an average of 110 per game. In the other 10 games he played this year, he rushed for 529 yards total, for an average of 52.9 yards a game. Double his earlier average and you still don't get to the 110 yards rushing that he's been averaging lately. And that's not even counting the threat that he is out of the backfield on short screen passes where he's able to use his explosive speed more effectively because there are less of his own team mates to run into.

I won't lie to you when I say that the running game of the Giants is a concern to me. Their two feature backs, Brandon Jacobs (1,009 yards rushing with four TDs) and Derrick Ward (602 yards rushing with three TDs) are a formidable duo that have rushed for more than 1,600 yards combined this season. But let's keep in mind that the Patriots, in the last two games, have held Jacksonville, the league's second best rushing team, to 80 yards rushing and then they held San Diego's seventh best rushing attack to 104 yards.

The Giants also have Ahmad Bradshaw out of the backfield and he's somewhat of a wildcard. The Giants mainly use him in the second half of games in the hopes that a defense will be tired down and more likely to miss tackling the semi-elusive Bradshaw. You know what I think, though? There's a reason that he's not the starting running back and it's because he's not very good. The Giants didn't even begin relying on him until the second to last game of the regular season in a snow game in Buffalo. And if the Giants are down by 10 or more, do you really think that the Giants are going to be running the ball?

For wide recievers, the Giants feature Plaxico Burress (70 catches, 1,025 yards, 12 TDs) and Amani Toomer (59 catches, 760 yards, three TDs). I know that Burress had a monster game against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game with 11 catches for 151 yards. But he never found the end zone in the game or any of the Giants' three playoff wins. In fact, in the other two playoff games combined, Burress only had five catches for 43 yards. Burress also has a bad ankle, as well as swelling in his knee, that has prevented him from practicing this week. But apparently his mouth still works because he spouted off about the Giants winning the Super Bowl 23-17. Maybe his brain is also broken because the Patriots haven't scored fewer than 20 points in a game all year. Does he think a suspect defense, one which gave up 38 points to this same team a few weeks ago, is going to somehow contain this offense to 17 points? And he's also assuming that we will be employing the use of a field goal kicker in his final score. I'm not even sure the Patriots invited Stephen Gostkowski, their field goal kicker, to the Super Bowl.

By comparison, the Patriots record setting offense features Randy Moss (98 catches for 1,493 yards and a record setting 23 TDs), Wes Welker (league high 112 catches for 1,175 yards and eight TDs), Donte Stallworth (46 catches for 697 yards and three TDs) and even Jabar Gaffney (36 catches for 449 yards and five TDs). Whew, that's a lot of catches, a lof of yards and a lot of TDs.

I understand that Randy Moss has been completely neutralized in the first two games of the playoffs and that has me a little concerned. But the goal isn't to make sure that Moss gets thrown the ball a certain number of times. The goal is to win and the Patriots have done that, convincingly.

Tom Brady said that, "I thought San Diego played extremely well. I think Jacksonville did a great job. I'm sure that Randy was a big point of emphasis. I'm sure for the Giants he'll be a big point of emphasis . . . but I never lose track of him." That's right, he never loses track of him. Look for Moss to go deep early and often in the Super Bowl because we all know that the Giants don't have the speed or talent to keep up with him.

And, just for fun, let's say that the Giants do limit Moss during the Super Bowl. Who's stopping Welker? Who's stopping Stallworth? Who's going to guard against Maroney, who's had a huge month? Who's going to keep track of Kevin Faulk and make sure he doesn't stick a dagger in your back when you're not looking? Who's going to keep track of Jabar Gaffney, who has caught some huge touchdowns for the Patriots this year? Who's going to stop Mike Vrabel when he lines up as a tight end? Did you know that the Patriots also have one of the best tight ends in all of football in Benjamin Watson? Who's going to guard Watson while the rest of the defense is running around like chickens with no heads trying to figure out if they should cover Moss deep or let him go in the hopes that it's a play designed for Welker coming over the middle? Pick your poison because this team has too many weapons to be stopped by a middle of the road defense. Case in point:



Now I know that you're thinking that the offense of the Patriots has trailed off recently and you know what? You're right. In their first nine games, they scored 355 points, which was by far the most in the league and nearly as many as the Giants scored the entire year. However, over their last nine games, including the playoff games against Jacksonville and San Diego, the Patriots scored 286 points, down significantly from their first nine games but still best in the league over that time frame. Know what else? Every single one of their last nine games was played outdoors, in the Northeast, where rain/sleet/snow/wind/cold played a factor in almost every game. Super Bowl XLII is being played in Arizona in a stadium with a retractable roof that features what the league is calling a fast track, meaning the speed of New England recievers is going to be put on full display. If I were the Giants, I would be afraid, very, very afraid.

So now that we've established that the Patriots have the much better quarterback, a better defense and a far superior offense, I'll be breaking down some intangibles in the next Super Bowl XLII Preview where I'll even make my pick and scoring prediction. Stay tuned.