Super Bowl XLII Preview, Part IV

Well, I was going to try to get to Part XLII of my Super Bowl coverage but IV is as far as I'm taking it. I'm not a Giants fan by any stretch of the imagination (as if you couldn't tell) and even I'm feeling depressed for the whupping that I believe the Giants are going to be taking come Sunday night. I've compared the quarterbacks, the defense and the offense of each team and the Patriots have an edge in each of those categories.

Now I'm going to give some general thoughts on the game that don't quite fit into any one category, as well as my Super Bowl prediction at the end of this column. Just a hint: I'm not picking the Giants.

Let's start with the strength of schedule for each team. The Giants played teams that were a combined 132-124 this year, which is pretty impressive. However, the only team that they beat with a winning record (9-7 or better) were the Washington Redskins 24-17 in week three. They later lost to the 'Skins near the end of the season. The Giants also lost to Dallas two times, Green Bay and the Patriots. Basically, they didn't beat any good teams during the regular season. And no, I don't believe that the Redskins count as a good team.

By comparison, the Patriots played teams that were a combined 120-136 (hey, they can't help it if they have to play the Dolphins twice a year). As you may recall, the Patriots won all 16 of their regular season games against teams like San Diego (38-14), Washington (52-7), Dallas (48-27), Cleveland (34-17), Indianapolis (24-20), Pittsburgh (34-13) and the Giants (38-35). That's seven wins against quality teams for the Patriots as opposed to one win against a quality opponent by the Giants. Record aside, who's played best when it's mattered the most against quality opponents? I'd say the Patriots have by a margin the length of the Mississippi River.

So now let's take a look at the coaching matchup, where Tom Coughlin comes in as a career 103-89 coach for a .536 winning percentage and 7-6 in the playoffs over a twelve year span. Bill Belichick's coaching career spans 13 years with a 127-81 record for a .611 winning percnetage. However, in his last eight years with New England, Belicheat is 91-37 for a .711 winning percentage and is 14-2 in the playoffs, including three Super Bowl titles. Equally as important, since coming to New England in 2000, Belicheat has a 12-2 record when coaching after an off week. Those two losses came in the 2001 and 2002 seasons, meaning that the Patriots have won seven straight games under Belicheat when coming off a bye week.

I'm not sure I'm buying into the whole argument that the Giants almost won the season finale when these two teams met in the New York so they only have to make a few less mistakes to pull off the upset of the century. Don't the Patriots also have the same amount of extra time to correct their mistakes, as well? And how long do you think it will be before the Patriots realize that nearly all of their recievers can basically outrun the Giants secondary? Are you confident that with two weeks to prepare for a rematch against the Giants that Belicheat isn't going to draw up some ridiculous play that you've never seen before that will ultimately be the dagger in the Giants' back?

Oh, right, I forgot, the Giants almost beat the Patriots the last time they played. Are you sure? The Patriots turned a 12 point second half deficit into a ten point lead in the fourth quarter before giving up a late TD. And the Patriots ended the game by taking a knee on several straight plays. On their last five possessions of the game, the Patriots punted once, scored three touchdowns and ran out the clock as time expired. Are you sure it was that close of a game?

In their last meeting, it should also be noted that Laurence Maroney ran 19 times for 46 yards in one of his worst showings in the second half of the season. But do you know one of the reasons his output was so low? You're probably thinking it was because of a tenacious Giants defense but it's not. It's because three integral elements of the Patriots rushing game were inactive for that game, including the entire right side of the offensive line, Nick Kaczur and Stephen Neal, as well as tight end Kyle Brady, a blocking specialist. And it should also be noted that the Patriots held Giants running back Brandon Jacobs to 67 yards in that game, as well.

I've heard a lot of people compare this Giants team to the 1985 Patriots team. For those of you who don't remember, the 1985 Patriots went on the road and won three playoff games against the New York Jets, Oakland Raiders and Miami Dolphins. They had no business winning any of those games, especially in Miami where they traditionally played terrible. That was the start of the Squish the Fish phrase, which came with a complete line of clothing, as well. Picking the Patriots to win in Miami in the 1980s was sort of like expecting the current New York Giants to go into Green Bay two weeks ago and win. That's how big of a win it was for the Patriots. My, how the Dolphins have fallen. The Patriots later played the Chicago Bears in the Super Bowl, in a game that was over by half time, and ended up losing 46-10 to a team that was far superior to the Patriots in nearly every facet of the game, much like the current matchup.

I've searched high and low for a silver lining that would allow that Giants to pull off the huge upset and the only thing I can find is an eery similarity between the Giants and the 2001 New England Patriots, who shocked the world by winning the Super Bowl over the greatest show on turf, the St. Louis Rams. I remember how everyone was picking the Rams to completely blow out the Patriots but then the team refused to be introduced by name before the opening kickoff, opting instead to be introduced as a team and then we stayed with the Rams for the first half and then we were neck and neck in the second half. We had the ball with under two minutes to play and John Madden was telling the Patriots to run out the clock and take their chance in overtime. But there was Brady, leading the Patriots down the field with the calmness and accuracy of Joe Montana, players were making insane catches while diving out of bounds, the clock was ticking and before we could even fathom what was happening, Adam Vinatieri was kicking a 48 yard field goal to win the Super Bowl and we were all standing on Boylston Street in the freezing cold waiting for the team to drive by on Duck Boats.

Does Eli Manning, the guy who threw 20 INTs this season, have it in him to pull off this upset? Can Tom Coughlin, the coach who was almost fired after an 0-2 start to the season, come up with the blueprint to beat the Patriots and stop this record breaking offense from going down as the greatest team ever? Will Plaxico Burress back up his 23-17 Giants win statement with the game of his life while playing with a swollen knee and bad ankle? Can the Giants pass rush get to Tom Brady and repeatedly force him to make mistakes? Can the Giants defense stop the numerous offensive weapons we have? I say no, emphatically. And if an eery similarity to the New England Patriots team of 2001 is the only thing you've got going for you, I don't see this game ending well for the Giants.

NEW ENGLAND 41 New York 21