Saturday, September 13, 2008

Patriots-Jets Preview

Now that I've had a few days to recover from last week's loss of Tom Brady, my thoughts are a little clearer and I've analyzed this team from every angle possible. I've also drank lots and lots of the Bill Belichick Cool Aid (I prefer the green Cool Aid to the red Cool Aid). Are the Patriots as good as they were last week with Brady leading the way? Absolutely not. Are they still an elite team with a serious shot at getting back to the Super Bowl? I say yes. I know, call me crazy, but I still say yes.

Let's keep in mind that this team is still loaded on offense with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Jabar Gaffney, Benjamin Watson and a group of running backs that includes Laurence Maroney, Lamont Jordan, Kevin Faulk and about ten other guys. Are they still shaky on the defensive side of the ball? Yes, they have some work to do but they're younger than they were last year and have more speed than they had last year, as well. I'd look for them to be in the top eight teams defensively. And just for the record, I don't recall Brady playing defense so his injury has nothing to do with how the defense plays.

Now, let's talk offense. What would you say if Matt Cassel comes in and has a season where he completes 56 percent of his passes, which is about 300 completions on 530 attemps or approximately 20 of 35 per game? I'd take it. What if Cassel throws 23 touchdowns and has 20 interceptions for a quarterback rating around 74? I'd still take it. Now let's throw in a few fumbles on his part, say seven for the remaining 15 games. What would you think? Well, those are the EXACT numbers that Eli Freaking Manning put up last year. And yes, I just threw up. If Matt Cassel puts up numbers anywhere near those numbers, than the NFL may as well start engraving the players' names into the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Granted, I don't think that Cassel will be throwing it 35 times a week but look for him to have workmanlike days similar to the Chiefs game where he was 13-18 for 152 yards and a TD.

Here's the thing about Brady's injury- Matt Cassel doesn't need to come in and be Brady. He just needs to be an effective clock manager, throw to Moss and Welker, read the defensive schemes to make adjustments at the line, and keep the mistakes to a minimum. Look, I know that Brady threw 50 touchdowns last year but half of those came when the Patriots were already blowing teams out.

The biggest pressure is going to be on the running backs and, specifically, Maroney. This would be the perfect time for him to stop running into his own guys and just use his explosive speed to get into the open field. And I think he will. We saw it towards the end of last year so look for him to be more involved offensively in the weeks ahead. And on the days when Maroney can't help carry the team, look for Jordan to come in and grind it out with his smash mouth running style.

As for this week's game against the Jets, I don't think a whole lot has changed. Remember last year after the Patriots got caught cheating and the San Diego Chargers were coming to town licking their chops just waiting to jump on a team that looked devastated? Yeah, the Chargers somehow bungled that into a 38-14 loss. That game was won for Bill Belicheat and I have no doubt that the Patriots are going to come out on Sunday and absolutely dominate the Jets.

And let's not forget that the Patriots have the ultimate no-respect guy on the planet in Rodney HGHarrison. Even when the Patriots went 16-0 last year, HGHarrison was still crying about not being respected. What do you think HGHarrison is going to do when he sees that the Patriot have gone from being the Super Bowl favorite to be ranked 12th in Super Bowl odds? And what do you think he's going to do when he sees the Bernard Pollard fan club shirts? This team and Belichick use the smallest slight against them in their favor every week.

We should also remember that it was just about a month ago that Brett Favre came out of retirement, joined a new team, admitted he hadn't worked out in six months and then stepped into the limelight as the Jets new quarterback. And just for the record, I never doubted that he was retired. Big deal that the Jets beat the Dolphins last week. They were 1-15 last year. I still think that the Patriots' improved defense is going to find a way to get to Favre and make him wish he stayed retired.

Between the emotion of winning for Brady and the emotion of not letting the Jets beat them, I'm going back to the score of the second game of last year. Patriots 38-14, even though I'm still not convinced the Jets can score 14 points.

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